AT2k Design BBS - General Weather-related Discussi

7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

Sun, 26 Jul 2026 07:06:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: 7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

NWS Forecast for: 2 Miles ENE Johnson City TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN
Last Update: 2:26 am EDT Jul 26, 2026
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny,
with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of
less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in
thunderstorms.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and
noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming northwest
around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance
of showers after 11pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with
a low around 69. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of
precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly
a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 89. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts
as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then
showers likely between 11pm and 2am. Low around 67. West wind 5 to 10 mph
becoming light after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance
of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers between 8am and 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a
high near 84. Light west wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the
morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly
cloudy, with a low around 64.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny,
with a high near 85.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

Sun, 26 Jul 2026 07:04:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

.REST OF TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in the
lower 70s. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Humid with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the lower
90s. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values
around 106.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly
cloudy. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values around 107.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper
60s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain
40 percent.

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

Sun, 26 Jul 2026 07:00:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

287
FXUS64 KMRX 260521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected through this morning. If
multiple storms track over one location, isolated flooding will be
possible.

- Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible tomorrow and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon and
evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong to severe
storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins today. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be the
hottest days as heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s become more
commonplace, especially in the central and southern valley.

- Mostly dry conditions with slight improvements to the heat and
humidity are expected mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The pattern for the last week of July can be characterized by
continual broad ridging to the west and troughing to the northeast,
placing us within the region of northerly to northwesterly flow. The
near stationary boundary from the past few days still resides to our
south and will continue to drive the weather, at least through
today. Through this morning and possibly into the afternoon, streams
of showers and storms will glide over the region from the northwest.
If they are able to line up and train over the same area, isolated
flooding could be possible. Later today tries to dry out from
northwest to southeast.

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning still remains a big question
mark. 24 hours ago, models depicted a fairly stout shortwave
rounding the top of the ridge, potentially bringing an MCS over or
close to the area. It could very well just miss us to the west.
Something to watch, even though high-res models cant's seem to all
agree. Later in the day tomorrow may be dry for most with some
isolated activity around.

A potentially stronger shortwave that may pass over the Great Lakes
into Tuesday, will eventually bring a cold front across the region
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This has now moved up in time
compared to Friday night's forecast. Given the adjustment, assuming
it doesn't change, the potential for severe weather will need to be
closely monitored. At the time of this discussion, Day 3 and 4 from
the SPC highlight northeastern parts of the area.

Following Tuesday potentially having the hottest temperatures of the
week (upper 90s to low 100s heat indices in the valley), the cold
front will send temperatures down a few degrees Wednesday until the
end of the forecast period. Later Wednesday into Friday could be a
brief dry period with lower humidity before we turn the page to
August next weekend where precipitation chances return once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Scattered showers developing across the region will at times
likely impact all the airports during the first 6 hours of this
TAF cycle. Could bring conditions down to IFR, and if it rains
hard enough should see fog develop before sunrise. Confidence is
low at this time until rain actually occurs. Expect coverage to
decrease with the rising sun, leading to VFR conditions for most
of the daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 93 74 / 20 20 30 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 90 74 / 30 30 30 10
Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 90 73 / 20 20 30 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 66 86 69 / 50 20 20 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 19:04:03 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

.REST OF TODAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Light winds. Chance
of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
until early morning, then a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms late. Humid with lows in the lower 70s.
Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Humid with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers after
midnight. Humid with lows around 70. Light winds. Chance of rain
30 percent.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Humid
with highs in the lower 90s. Light winds. Chance of rain
30 percent. Heat index values around 105.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values around 109.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 19:00:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

017
FXUS64 KMRX 251901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected tonight. If multiple
storms track over one location, isolated flooding will be
possible.

- A warming trend begins tomorrow into the new work week. Monday
and Tuesday will be the hottest days as heat indices in the mid
90s to low 100s become more commonplace, especially in the
central and southern valley.

- Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms
are possible Monday and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon
and evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong
to severe storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- Mostly dry conditions with slight improvements to the heat and
humidity are expected mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A ridge axis remains centered well to our west while bouts of energy
will rotate through mean flow aloft this afternoon and tonight. This
will amplify troughing over the Mid-Atlantic into the southern
Appalachians. H85 and higher altitude flow will see minor
enhancements in response to the increasing vorticity advection
tonight. Because of this, the HREF suite depicts developing
scattered showers and storms across the region.

There will be a low risk of isolated flooding through the night.
Aspects of the atmosphere in favor of isolated flooding will be high
freezing-levels, anomalous PWATs, skinny CAPE profiles, and a few
locations that remain with poor antecedent soil conditions. Working
against the threat of isolated flooding is storm motion and lack of
a surface boundary to train along. Additionally, latest RAP and
NAMBufr soundings both depict a rather dry atmosphere at ~550mb and
higher, suggesting limited depth of saturation.

Sunday afternoon looks to be mostly dry, though an isolated shower
or storm cannot be totally ruled out. By Sunday night into early
Monday morning CAMs are suggest a MCS progressing through northern
KY and southward through portions of central and East Tennessee.
This activity moves quite quick so flooding should not be of
concern. The main focus will be keeping an eye on the potential for
some strong to damaging wind gusts. NAM soundings depict a fairly
stout low-level inversion so confidence is low that damaging gusts
could make it to the surface. Will have to keep an eye on how the
potential CAPE gradient plays out alongside timing trends.

A more potent shortwave is expected to promote development of an
upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into
Wednesday. A surface low develops in response, and an associated
cold front will bring increasing chances for showers and storms.
NAMBufr soundings have quite an impressive thermodynamic profile at
least for Tuesday afternoon, but timing of the storms may not
necessarily work out to tap into peak heating and the latest hi-
resolution guidance does not quite make it into those overnight
hours. LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE 1500+ J/kg and shear
30+kts are generally around 40 to 60% in our northeastern locations
where a day 4 Slight risk is currently in place. Primary hazard
would be damaging winds.

Regarding temperatures, Sunday through Tuesday will lean hot & humid.
Heat indices will be greatest Monday and Tuesday, with near to low
100 degree values expected to creep into the central valley. Post
FROPA, mostly dry and slightly cooler/less humid conditions are
expected mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Very light showers are still traversing the area, maintained some
VCSH at CHA and TYS. Tonight low confidence in weather, with
degradation to MVFR CIGs medium confidence, and scattered showers
and thunderstorms possibly between TYS and TRI overnight, though
low confidence in location, coverage, and intensity. Apart from
lightning, low CIGs and low VIS during storms. Post 12z conditions
should begin gradually improving, but may remain MVFR for much of
the area into the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 72 93 / 60 20 20 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 71 90 / 80 30 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 70 90 / 80 20 20 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 84 66 86 / 60 50 20 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...Wellington

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 17:06:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: 7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

NWS Forecast for: 2 Miles ENE Johnson City TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN
Last Update: 2:26 pm EDT Jul 25, 2026
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after
2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 5 mph becoming
calm in the evening.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11am. Partly
sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of
less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in
thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a
chance of showers between 1am and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around
66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly
sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a
chance of showers between 2am and 5am, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind
around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly
a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 89. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts
as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a
chance of showers. Low around 67. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light
southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of
precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after
8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 86.

Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly
cloudy, with a low around 64.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny,
with a high near 86.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 07:06:01 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: 7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

NWS Forecast for: 2 Miles ENE Johnson City TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN
Last Update: 2:26 am EDT Jul 25, 2026
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Today: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny,
with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 2am and 4am.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm.
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 85. Calm
wind becoming northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming west around
5 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and
possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 89. West wind 5 to 15 mph,
with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a
slight chance of showers. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before
8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 86.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 07:04:01 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

.REST OF TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers
late. Near steady temperature in the lower 70s. Light winds.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
morning and early afternoon. A slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the afternoon, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms late. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Light winds.
Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Light winds. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Light winds.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Light winds.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 90s. Chance of rain
30 percent. Heat index values around 107.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers
after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 07:00:01 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

404
FXUS64 KMRX 251059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible at times today
through the weekend. Best chances for rain during this period
is along the Plateau, central & southern valley, and into the E
TN mountains & SW NC. Relatively lower chances exist in NE TN
and SW VA.

- By Sunday, temperatures will rise well into the 80s and low 90s.
Hot and humid conditions alongside additional isolated to
scattered storms at times for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally speaking, the synoptic pattern consist of broad ridging
across much of the CONUS with a weaker trough over the northeast. A
stationary boundary remains situated along our southern CWA border,
and will be the focus for some scattered showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Due to the morning overcast
conditions CAPE is more limited today, thus, strong convection
threat is very low. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out where
poor antecedent conditions exist, but with the primary axis of
convergence to our south and improved storm motion, the flooding
threat is also much lower than previous days.

Shortwave energy will dive into the Great Lakes region tomorrow,
with increasing chances for precipitation as a weak vort max rounds
the base of the aforementioned trough, which will then be digging
into the southern Apps. CAPE looks to be very limited so this will
be predominately showers. Still some disagreement with CAMs on how
exactly timing/coverage plays out, but trends lean towards a period
of increased PoP chances Saturday morning into the afternoon. A
brief lull will then be possible, with some additional PoP
chances returning Sat night.

The trough axis looks to begin a slow eastward shift Sunday, with
increasing H5 heights promoting a slight warming trend. Isolated
convection cannot be ruled out in vicinity of higher terrain and
southern valley Sunday afternoon, but most will remain dry for the
bulk of the afternoon and evening. A drier vertical column with high
DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-7degC
could lead to gusty winds if storms can initiate.

Additional periods of showers and storms will be possible into early
next week as bouts of energy round the base of the trough. Highest
PoP chances will be in north and eastern areas. With enhanced shear
due to marginal mid and upper level flow, periods of strong to
severe storm chances cannot be ruled out depending on timing and
availability of instability. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday look
to be the warmest days with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.
A slight moderation in temperatures is expected late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Shower moving through the region this morning should slowly
dissipate, but could still bring light rain to KCHA/KTYS.
Additional showers expected this afternoon with heaviest showers
brining MVFR or IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 90 72 / 40 50 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 71 88 71 / 30 40 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 85 70 88 70 / 30 50 30 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 65 84 66 / 20 30 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

3 Day Space Weather Forecast

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 00:19:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: 3 Day Space Weather Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 25-Jul 27 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 25-Jul 27 2026

Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27
00-03UT 1.67 2.00 3.00
03-06UT 1.33 1.67 3.00
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 1.00 3.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 3.00
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.33 3.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 25-Jul 27 2026

Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 25-Jul 27 2026

Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a high
chance for M-class flares (35%) on 25-27 July due to the flare potential
of Regions 4493 and 4494.

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:04:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

.REST OF TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in the mid 80s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Light winds.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the
morning. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Light winds. Chance of
rain 40 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Light winds.
Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows around 70.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to mid 90s. Heat
index values around 109.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:00:01 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA

757
FXUS64 KMRX 241856
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible at times today
through the weekend. Best chances for rain during this period
is along the Plateau, central & southern valley, and into the E
TN mountains & SW NC. Relatively lower chances exist in NE TN
and SW VA.

- By Sunday, temperatures will rise well into the 80s and low 90s.
Hot and humid conditions alongside additional isolated to
scattered storms at times for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally speaking, the synoptic pattern consist of broad ridging
across much of the CONUS with a weaker trough over the northeast. A
stationary boundary remains situated along our southern CWA border,
and will be the focus for some scattered showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Due to the morning overcast
conditions CAPE is more limited today, thus, strong convection
threat is very low. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out where
poor antecedent conditions exist, but with the primary axis of
convergence to our south and improved storm motion, the flooding
threat is also much lower than previous days.

Shortwave energy will dive into the Great Lakes region tomorrow,
with increasing chances for precipitation as a weak vort max rounds
the base of the aforementioned trough, which will then be digging
into the southern Apps. CAPE looks to be very limited so this will
be predominately showers. Still some disagreement with CAMs on how
exactly timing/coverage plays out, but trends lean towards a period
of increased PoP chances Saturday morning into the afternoon. A
brief lull will then be possible, with some additional PoP
chances returning Sat night.

The trough axis looks to begin a slow eastward shift Sunday, with
increasing H5 heights promoting a slight warming trend. Isolated
convection cannot be ruled out in vicinity of higher terrain and
southern valley Sunday afternoon, but most will remain dry for the
bulk of the afternoon and evening. A drier vertical column with high
DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-7degC
could lead to gusty winds if storms can initiate.

Additional periods of showers and storms will be possible into early
next week as bouts of energy round the base of the trough. Highest
PoP chances will be in north and eastern areas. With enhanced shear
due to marginal mid and upper level flow, periods of strong to
severe storm chances cannot be ruled out depending on timing and
availability of instability. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday look
to be the warmest days with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.
A slight moderation in temperatures is expected late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Clouds are scattering over most of the valley, but kept a more
pessimistic near term at KTRI. Shower activity is generally in the
eastern third and should continue to push east. Tonight cannot
rule out a light drizzle, but near surface dry air in the southern
two-thirds may prevent precipitation. KTRI is likely to re-enter
MVFR conditions, with low potential for IFR CIGs as well. Once
daylight returns, conditions will gradually return to VFR with low
potential towards the end of the period for scattered rain
showers from the northwest. Winds should remain light through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 86 72 90 / 10 40 40 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 85 70 88 / 20 20 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 68 85 69 88 / 10 20 20 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 81 64 84 / 50 10 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...Wellington

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 17:06:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: 7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

NWS Forecast for: 2 Miles ENE Johnson City TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN
Last Update: 2:26 pm EDT Jul 24, 2026
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook
This Afternoon: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly
sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of
showers between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South
wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New
precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except
higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west
around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. West wind around 5
mph becoming calm.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly
sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming west around
5 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a
slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers
and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a
thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of
precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then
a chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of
precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 87.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly
cloudy, with a low around 64.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 87.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
clear, with a low around 64.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high
near 88.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:06:01 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: 7 Day Forecast for Tri Cities TN/VA

NWS Forecast for: 2 Miles ENE Johnson City TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN
Last Update: 6:26 am EDT Jul 24, 2026
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Today: A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms between 11am and noon, then showers likely and possibly a
thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind
becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New
rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher
amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before
9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 5 mph
becoming calm.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers between 1pm and 2pm. Cloudy, then
gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming
west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
between 7pm and 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind
around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly
sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm,
then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with
a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly
sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the
afternoon.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy,
with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Chance
of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then
showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8pm and 2am, then a
chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance
of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 88.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly
clear, with a low around 64.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 87.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:04:02 -0500

From: Sean Dennis @618:618/1 *61
To: All @Echomail *61
Subject: East Tennessee Zone Area Forecast

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming mostly sunny.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper
80s. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Light winds.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Humid with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. Light winds. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the morning. Humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat index values
around 105 in the afternoon.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of
rain 20 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values around 109.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)