FOUS11 KWBC 080719
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026

...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies... Days 1-2...

A surface cold front will be draped NE to SW from Montana through
Oregon to start the period, lingering from a wave of low pressure
moving across Canada. As this cold front wavers Sunday, a
shortwave trough will emerge from the Pacific and cross northeast
into the Pacific Northwest, reaching the Northern Rockies Monday
evening while deamplifying and shearing out into the westerlies.
This will result in a secondary wave of low pressure developing
along the front which will finally kick the front southeast and out
of the region.

Forcing for ascent will intensify as this shortwave lifts
northeast, as mid-level divergence and heights falls interact atop
the boundary, and work in tandem with a zonally oriented but
intensifying jet streak arcing into the Northern Plains. This
synoptic lift atop the corresponding moisture (via strengthening
but still modest IVT) will result in a stripe of precipitation,
with snowfall expected in the higher terrain. Snow levels will be
falling through the period as the cold front and height falls
progress E/SE, reaching as low as 3000-4000 ft before precip winds
down by Tuesday morning. 2-day WPC probabilities indicate a high
potential (>70% chance) for at least 8 inches in the higher terrain
of the Cascades, as well as across the Blue Mountains, and much of
the terrain of the Northern Rockies of ID/western MT/northwest WY.
Locally 1-2 feet is possible.

...Sierra Nevada and Great Basin... Days 2-3...

A closed mid-level low west of California will gradually translate
eastward, potentially coming onshore northern California by the end
of the forecast period. The progression of this low will result in
increasing ascent through height falls/mid-level divergence into
CA. At the same time, a subtropical jet streak will intensify
downstream of this trough axis, strengthening to 130 kts and
placing the favorable LFQ diffluent region over CA and into the
Great Basin, aligning with the strongest height falls. Moisture
advection will spread onshore beneath modest IVT (40-60% chance of
at least 250 kg/m/s) but this will be sufficient to spread heavy
precipitation into the region. With snow levels expected to be
generally 6000-7000 ft, the heavy snow should be confined to the
Sierra and higher terrain farther east (Ruby mountains of NV and
into the Uintas, but at least light snow will spread across much of
the Great Basin above 6000 ft, rare for what has been an
exceptionally dry winter so far, and likely welcome for most of the
region. Current WPC probabilities indicate a high chance (>70%) for
more than 8 inches in the high Sierra, with locally more than 12
inches possible (30-50% chance). Farther east, WPC probabilities
indicate a low risk (30%) for 6+ inches in the Ruby Mountains and
parts of the Uintas.

...Northeast... Day 3...

A clipper-type low will drop out of Ontario and cross Upstate New
York and New England Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The clipper
itself is not impressively strong, but will be preceded by a period
of moderate WAA which will help expand a shield of snowfall with
moderate snow rates from NY through central/northern New England.
As the clipper dives through the area after 00Z Wednesday, it will
be followed additionally by some upslope ascent into the
Adirondacks and Greens to enhance snowfall potential. Most of the
snow should be of moderate intensity and limited duration (6-12
hours), but where the WAA snow combined with post-system upslope
snow, a few inches of accumulation is likely. This is reflected by
WPC probabilities that indicate a 50-70% chance of at least 4
inches in the Adirondacks and Greens.

Weiss

...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key
Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/La...

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