MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

ACUS11 KWNS 042040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042039=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-042245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...much of northern Ohio into far northwest
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97...

Valid 042039Z - 042245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible through
late afternoon across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...A leading line of thunderstorms well ahead of the cold
front moved across northwest OH and far southeast Lower MI earlier
this afternoon, producing locally damaging gusts. This line has
since weakened and is now entering into central OH.=20

The air mass continues to warm across eastern areas, and some
rejuvenation is possible. Further, 0-1 km shear on the order of
100-175 m2/s2 exists over northern OH and eastward along the south
shores of Lake Erie, which may aid rotation within any storms that
move into that zone. The CLE VWP shows 0-1 SRH around 175 m2/s2 with
0-3 km shear of 42 kt.

Farther west, a narrow line of convection is forming along the cold
front into far eastern IN and into northwest OH/southeast Lower MI.
Instability is weak here, but pockets of destabilization in the wake
of the earlier activity may allow for at least isolated severe
gusts. Low-level shear is comparably favorable here as well,
possibly supporting QLCS structures should convection become
sufficiently established.

..Jewell.. 04/04/2026

ATTN...WFO...BUF...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   40318524 41218475 42238444 42418425 42428349 42268302
            41928276 42128094 42438005 42277969 41727998 40958084
            40588169 40088251 39858347 40128506 40318524=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

$$

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