709 
FXUS64 KMRX 041839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this
  afternoon, becoming more widespread tonight into Sunday morning
  as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front Sunday morning will bring cooler temperatures early
  next week and dry weather Sunday afternoon through the work
  week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Upper level ridging will gradually breakdown as a trough progresses 
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions today into Sunday. 
Diurnal convection is becoming more prominent on the regional radar 
mosaic as an initial vorticity lobe helps kick start the ridge 
breakdown this afternoon. Both MLCAPE and DCAPE are around 500-
700J/kg per latest mesoanalysis. Strongest convection could bring
brief heavy downpour, small hail, or locally gusty winds, but
severe is unlikely. 

As H5 heights fall this evening into tonight, a swly H85 jet near 40-
45kts and surface cold front will translate across the forecast 
area. Warm and moist air advection from the LLJ will promote 
moderate low-level shear with marginal elevated CAPE per latest hi-
resolution guidance. Latest SPC HREF run depicts quickly diminishing 
SBCAPE as the main axis of convection moves in, with soundings 
showing a low level inversion developing. This will help limit 
potential hazards. The primary threat will be strong to isolated 
damaging wind gusts. It is also possible to have some small hail. 
While there is some decent low-level shear, the aforementioned 
inversion will keep the tornado threat very close to zero. A period 
of gusty winds up to 35mph is also likely in the East Tennessee 
mountains. While conditions are not favorable for advisory level 
winds widespread, it wouldn't catch me by surprise to see Cove 
Mountain gusting to around 40-45mph.

Rain chances will linger into the morning hours, with the area 
expected to remain largely dry as we go through Sunday afternoon. 
Cooler temperatures can be expected through Tuesday, with a gradual 
warming trend mid and late week as the upper trough ejects 
northeast. An extended period under the effect of high pressure and 
associated subsidence seems likely, with a dry forecast through the 
remainder of the 7 day period. Afternoons through the work week will 
entail low afternoon relative humidities. Higher terrain and 
northern areas could see some potential morning frost conditions if 
overnight RH recovery is strong enough Mon-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers
and thunderstorms late tonight into the overnight. Reduced 
visibility and MVFR cigs are expected as this activity spreads 
across the region. A return to VFR conditions is expected at CHA 
late morning, with MVFR cigs persisting into the early afternoon 
at TRI and TYS. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  68  44  70 / 100  70   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  65  41  66 / 100  80   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  67  40  68 / 100  60   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              53  64  37  64 / 100  90   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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