308 
FXUS64 KMRX 050544
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Widespread rain with pockets of heavy rain will continue 
overnight and into the morning hours. 

- Cold front this morning will bring cooler temperatures early in 
the week.

- Dry weather this afternoon through the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Widespread rain with pockets of heavy rain is moving through the 
region ahead of a cold front, currently located in Middle Tennessee. 
The severe threat is over as instability has plummeted across the 
region. Lightning is very sparse and will remain isolated overnight. 
Some gusty winds will still be possible in the stronger showers 
overnight possibly up to 35 mph. The latest run of CAMs show good 
chances for widespread moderate rain continuing overnight becoming a 
light rain by daybreak. Storm total rainfall forecast has gone up a 
bit with most locations expecting about an inch of rain with higher 
amounts closer to 1.5 inches possible through the TN Valley. With
some degree of drought conditions across most of the region, any 
flooding issues overnight would likely be minor flooding in 
typical spots. 

Gusty winds will continue overnight in the East Tennessee mountains 
and foothills but are still expected to stay below Wind Advisory 
criteria (gusts 40 mph+) with 850 mb winds peaking around 30-35 
knots with more of a southwesterly wind direction that is not as 
favorable for downslope enhancement. Cove Mountain has been gusting 
around 40 mph for the past few hours. Most mountain and wind prone 
foothill locations will probably stay in the 30 to 35 mph gust 
range. Winds will start to decrease by daybreak as the low level jet 
moves out.

Rain will start to taper off this morning, ending completely across 
the region by noon. A cool, dry air mass moves into the region today 
behind the front. Highs today through Tuesday will be closer to 
seasonal normals in the 60s. Much cooler than recent weather. Frost 
may be a concern Monday through Wednesday mornings in the north and 
the mountains as soil moisture lingers. Dry weather will continue 
through the workweek and a warming trend will start Wednesday with 
highs getting into the 70s through Friday for most of the TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Widespread rain will be moderate to heavy at times over the next
few hours. Lightning has been very sparse and therefore removed
from TAFs. Low level wind shear around 30 knots is possible for at
least the next few hours. CIGs and vis will deteriorate overnight
with MVFR conditions likely into the morning hours. IFR CIGs are 
possible in the early morning hours with the best chance near TRI.
Light rain will linger into the morning hours especially near TYS
and TRI with CIGs slow to improve. VFR will return by tomorrow 
afternoon as rain moves out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  44  70  46 /  70   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  41  66  43 /  80   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  40  68  43 /  60   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  37  64  38 /  90   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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