431 
FXUS64 KMRX 020439
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1239 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Ongoing showers and storms will continue to weaken as they 
  shift east overnight. Localized flooding will still be a threat 
  over the next several hours tonight.

- Isolated damaging wind and localized flooding will be possible 
  with additional storms mainly across far northeast Tennessee and
  southwest Virginia Sunday afternoon.

- At least scattered showers and storms can be expected each day
  Monday through Friday, especially during the afternoon hours.
  Higher chances expected early in the week. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The front located near our western border will be moving slowly 
across our western portions of our area through the night, but 
will be very slow to exit. There will be additional showers and 
possibly a few thunderstorms overnight into Sunday morning near 
and ahead of the front, but the severe threat is waning. A few 
areas have seen flooding this evening, and any areas that see 
repeated or prolonged heavy rainfall over the next few hours will 
continue to be at risk for flooding. This flooding threat is 
expected to be diminishing later tonight. The south/southeast low 
level flow across the eastern mountains will keep gusty winds in 
the usual higher elevation and foothill areas overnight into early
Sunday, although still do not expect strong enough winds to 
warrant a wind advisory. These gusty winds will be subsiding 
during the day as flow weakens and becomes more southwesterly.

As the atmosphere becomes more unstable ahead of the slow moving 
front during the day Sunday, a few strong to severe storms will be 
possible mainly over our northeastern areas of NE TN and SW VA where 
effective shear of 25 to 35 kts is forecast along with ML CAPES of 
around 1000 J/kg or more. Damaging winds would be the primary threat 
with any stronger storms. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will 
also be a concern with these storms.  The front will likely edge 
east of our area by late in the day or early Sunday night. 

The models, as is usually the case in these types of scenarios, 
still are struggling with the exact placement and movement of the 
weak upper low that is left behind and meanders somewhere over the 
region during the early part of the week. The ensemble approach of 
the NBM has rather high chances for showers and storms over us for 
Monday through Wednesday, but a minority solution in the models 
suggests that the upper low drifts off to our east and/or northeast 
more quickly and chances for precipitation decrease earlier (the 
latest 00Z NAM is in this camp). We will have to wait for more 
clarity on that, but eventually we will see the chances decrease to 
a more typical summertime pattern of scattered showers and storms 
around mainly during the afternoon hours each day by the Thursday 
through Saturday time frame if not sooner. We will start the week 
out with high temperatures a bit below normal, but gradual warming 
will bring temperatures back to around normal by the latter half of 
the week. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Will still be some showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, around 
early in the period at TYS and TRI. The probability of 
thunderstorms impacting the terminals looks too low to include in
the TAFs, so will have tempo shower groups both sites. TRI may 
see a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon, so will have a prob30 thunder
group there late. CHA looks likely to see an MVFR level cig for 
several hours later tonight/early Sunday, and there is a good 
chance of it moving into TYS as well. TRI will likely stay VFR 
outside of any showers or storms. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  70  86  71 /  20  10  70  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  68  85  69 /  40  30  60  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  67  82  66 /  80  50  70  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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