492 
FXUS64 KMRX 021903
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
303 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Isolated strong wind gusts and localized flooding will be
  possible with scattered showers and storms across NE TN and SW
  VA this afternoon. 

- Additional shower and storm chances can be expected each day
  next week, especially during the afternoon hours. 

- Slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the
  first half of the week, returning to near seasonal norms for the
  latter half.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Anomalous upper troughing continues its slow eastward progression 
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon. The associated 
occluded surface low is centered near the KY/IN/OH border, with an 
accompanying cold front advecting into eastern portions of the 
forecast area. Regional radar imagery depicts isolated to weakly 
scattered showers along this boundary locally. 

Between model derived soundings and SPC mesoanalysis, this 
afternoons environment will be accompanied by MLCAPE 500-1250 J/kg, 
PWAT values around 1.5-1.8 inches, and effective shear near 30 kts. 
The slightly drier air relative to the previous day will also 
contribute to DCAPE 800-1100 J/kg across the northeast. Because of 
this, a marginal risk for a isolated strong to damaging winds is in 
place across the northeast. However, latest radar trends provide 
decreasing confidence in this occurrence. Recent rains have also 
helped saturate soils with many 1 hr ffgs in the 1.3-1.5 inch range, 
thus, isolated flooding could become a threat where slower moving or 
training storms occur along the boundary. 

A largely quiet night is expected, with the exception of patchy fog 
for some. An upper low is expected to become gradually cutoff from 
mean flow as we head into the work week. This will promote daily 
chances for showers and maybe a few storms as the upper low churns 
over the southern Appalachians. Temperatures will also remain 
slightly below normal for early August. Because of worked over 
soils, broad marginal risks remain in place for isolated flooding 
potential each day for the next several days. Some discrepancies 
remain with how/when the cutoff melds back into mean flow late week, 
but latest trends suggest increasing influence of longwave troughing 
to our northwest will continue daily precip chances even as the low 
becomes absorbed into mean flow sometime late week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Spotty showers are on-going between TYS and TRI along an eastward
moving cold front. Overall, it looks like the potential for an 
impactful shower at TYS terminal has passed, though will keep 
VCSH for a few hours. A brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out
at TRI this afternoon. Focus changes to potential MVFR cig
development tonight into Monday morning. Greatest confidence
exists at TRI where HREF probs are around 60% to 70%, followed by
CHA around 50% and TYS around 40%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  86  70  88 /  10  60  20  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  84  69  86 /  20  50  20  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  84  68  86 /  10  50  10  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  81  66  84 /  50  50  20  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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