846 
FXUS64 KMRX 031919
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
319 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Shower and storm chances will continue each day this week, 
  especially during the afternoon hours. A few locations may see 
  very heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding with 
  these showers and storms. 

- Temperatures near normal tomorrow on-ward. Not much fluctuation
  in readings expected into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Our area for the next couple of days will be wedged between
surface high pressure to the north and west and a stationary front
to the south and east. Behind the departing trough over the
northeast, a weak cut-off low will cycle while remaining trapped
in place, with upper ridging to the west and broad troughing
encompassing the northern tier of the country.

During the afternoon and evening hours, showers and thunderstorm
chances will increase across the area, with the highest
probability over the Southern Appalachians. The main possible
hazard in places impacted will be, localized flooding under a 
heavier storm or training and wind gusts. A marginal risk for
severe storms will primarily be east of the forecast area over 
the Carolina's tomorrow. Forcing near the front/low, paired with a
very moist and unstable airmass with steepening lapse rates, may 
lead to wet microburst potential. This could be possible here 
along and closest to our eastern border. 

Wednesday may bring more widespread chances of showers and
thunderstorms across the region, when the weak upper low is
forecast to be absorbed by the aforementioned broad trough.
Following that, mostly unchanged conditions the rest of the week
and into the weekend within weak flow/steering, diurnal showers 
and thunderstorms, humid days, and not so much fluctuating of 
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A persistent weak upper low and thus, stationary front to our
south and east, will keep precipitation chances nearby through
tomorrow; mainly in the afternoon and evening. Confidence is low
on if a shower/storm will for sure impact a terminal. VCSH will be
kept without mentioning of TS. Guidance tries to show MVFR
CIG/VSBY late tonight, but not including for now due to
uncertainty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  89  72  88 /  10  50  30  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  88  71  87 /  10  40  20  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  88  71  86 /  10  30  30  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  85  68  84 /  10  50  20  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KS


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