210 
FXUS64 KMRX 040535
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
135 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Stuck pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Very low chance for
  localized flooding each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Synoptic situation looks fairly well understood, with a trough 
currently cutting off from upper westerlies, proceeding to hang 
around a couple of days, and then dissipating and being re-absorbed 
into the westerlies by late week. Next weekend potentially another 
Midwestern trough will be present, though the two ridges (one in the 
West, one in the Atlantic) may try to bridge that gap. 

The end result of our slow moving upper friend is we will keep rain 
chances in the forecast every day over the next several days, and 
likely into the next weekend. Most of the activity will be diurnally 
focused, that is centered in the afternoon and early evening hours, 
but as we've seen this past evening, shower activity can continue 
into the nighttime hours, just with lesser coverage. Convection 
might be, on some days, focused moreso on the large terrain features 
we have and less so in the valley, similar to how Monday progressed, 
but each day will be dependent on the degree of lift we can obtain 
from the resident upper low, any outflow boundaries, and available 
instability.

As far as risks, steering motions are on the low side this week, so 
cannot rule out an isolated flood risk. PWATs aren't overly high, 
but the slow storm motions are enough coupled with the otherwise 
satisfactory moisture content to present a very low risk. Should any 
day realize more CAPE available for storm growth, then a few gusty 
winds in collapsing downdrafts is also possible, but with our low 
shear environment I think that is on the low side as well. And on 
days when storms get tall enough, lightning of course. Otherwise 
apart from storms we look to have standard August temperatures and 
generally light summer winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Showers and storms will be scattered this afternoon and early
evening. Thunder chances are a bit higher than yesterday but 
chances on station are fairly low. Low to medium confidence on 
possible thunderstorm timing. Mostly VFR conditions are expected 
outside of heavy rain. Winds will remain light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  72  88  72 /  50  30  70  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  71  87  71 /  40  20  80  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  71  86  70 /  30  30  80  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  68  84  68 /  50  20  70  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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