ACUS01 KWNS 310529
SWODY1
SPC AC 310527

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi
Valley. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
southern Plains and from east-central Colorado into northeastern New Mexico.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a positively tilted shortwave trough will move
southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An
associated cold front will advance southeastward into the western
Ozarks. Ahead of the front, an axis of moisture will be in place
with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm,
moderate instability will develop along and near the moist axis,
with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range during
the afternoon. In addition to the instability, mid-level flow will
be westerly at 30 to 35 knots, which will contribute to moderate
deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector. This will result a
mixed mode with supercells and organized line segments both
possible. Along the instability axis, 0-3 km lapse rates are
forecast to peak near 7 C/km which will support a threat for severe
wind gusts. The threat could persist into the early to mid evening
as storms move southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains/East-central Colorado/Northeast New Mexico...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
into central Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle by afternoon. An axis
of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front as
temperatures become hot in the mid to late afternoon. Increasing
low-level convergence near the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development. These storms will move south-southeastward
across the Red River Valley and southward across the Caprock of west
Texas. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature
dewpoint spreads exceeding 40 degrees F in some areas will result in
a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

Further west into east-central Colorado and northeast New Mexico, an
axis of instability will develop by afternoon in and near the
foothills of the southern Rockies. Storms will form in the mid to
late afternoon in the higher terrain and gradually move
southeastward into the lower elevations. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe gusts. Hail
could also occur with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 07/31/2026

$$
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