495 
FXUS64 KMRX 132319
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
619 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday. High
  confidence in widespread +0.50" totals, with greater than 50%
  chance for an inch or more of rainfall primarily over the
  northern plateau area.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

An upper low will eject eastward from central Texas Saturday 
afternoon and evening, moving to central Georgia by Sunday 
evening. Ahead of this system, widespread rainfall is expected to 
spread across the forecast area and the southern Appalachian 
region in general, late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There
remains some uncertainty in the expected rainfall amounts but 
there is pretty high confidence in seeing at least 0.50" across
much of the CWA, with even a 50-60 percent chance of seeing 1" of
rain or more primarily north of I-40 and west of I-75. This is
much needed given the ongoing drought conditions across the
region, and the introduction of some D3 drought categories in our
southern TN counties this week.

Additionally, a belt of stronger H85 winds will extend north into
the southern Appalachians Saturday night through roughly midday 
Sunday. Cross sections show some downward motions in the lee of 
the TN mountains, but there's no strong cross-mountain pressure 
gradients in place. As such, it doesn't seem like any wind 
headlines are warranted right now. It will be breezy in the 
foothills, and even the southern plateau areas, but right now it
doesn't appear that we'll get that downward acceleration like we
would in a true mountain wave wind event and that the speeds will
be low enough to preclude putting up any headlines at the moment.

Otherwise, this system moves off the southeast coastline by
sunrise Monday morning, giving way to persistent ridging that
builds over the Tennessee valley and deep south through at least
the first half of next week. Indications are we'll see dry
conditions through much of next week to be honest. And temperatures
will respond in kind, climbing to 8-10 degrees above normal by 
Tue/Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Will see VFR conditions for the period. Winds will generally be
light. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             34  61  47  58 /   0  10  80 100 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  32  59  44  53 /   0  10  80 100 
Oak Ridge, TN                       32  58  44  53 /   0  10  80 100 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              27  57  40  50 /   0   0  70 100 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


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