ACUS02 KWNS 040557
SWODY2
SPC AC 040556

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central
Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...MO...southern IA...central IL...
A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes
on Wednesday, with a weak surface trough roughly from northern MI
southwestward into northern MO. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will exist from MO into IA and IL, supporting around 1500
J/kg MUCAPE. This, combined with around 35 kt deep shear should
support scattered strong to severe storms with mixed mode. Locally
damaging wind gusts are most likely as storms congeal and produce
outflow. A few of the initial cells may produce marginal hail.

...Northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles...
Storms should form over the high terrain of northeast NM after 20Z
with a modest northwest flow regime aloft. High pressure will exist
over the central Plains, but surface winds will back to easterly and
provide moisture into the region late in the day. Strong heating and
steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong wind gusts.

...Southeast AZ...
Westerly surface winds with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints and daytime
heating will support storms over the eastern Mogollon Rim / White
Mtns, with some west/southwest propagation possible. MUCAPE should
rise to at least 1500 J/kg, with PWAT near 1.25" supporting locally
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2026

$$
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