617 
FXUS64 KMRX 050543
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms will continue each day
  through the forecast period, primarily favoring the afternoon
  and evening hours. A low chance for localized flooding exists
  each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The meandering upper low overhead will dissipate and be re-absorbed 
into the mean westerlies over the next two days, but steady moisture 
and August temperatures should allow for convection to fire each 
afternoon, with medium chances for showers and storms in the lower 
elevations. As our upper low feature dissipates to end the week, 
orographic forced storms I think will be more likely than valley 
based convection when we hit the weekend and head into next week. 
Next work week there's still uncertainty regarding strength of flow 
aloft, especially north of our area, but the NBM's low to medium 
chances for PM hours showers and storms looks reasonable, as we wait 
to see where better forcing arrives or if we're left to 
orographically forced storms for a longer period of time.

Otherwise each day should have 1000 to 3000 J CAPE available in the 
relatively moist airmass, and dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s 
should help combine for similar rain rate potential as yesterday. 
Days with lower CAPE may limit the overall risk, but the scattered 
summer convection should lend itself to a lightning and isolated 
flooding risk. A few gusts to 40 or 50 mph too depending on storm 
depth. Steering winds are still generally 10 knots or less over the 
next couple of days, so slow moving storms will have opportunity to 
rack up a quick couple inches of rain. As always with summer 
convection, location location location is everything with how 
impactful a flash flood risk is, so be mindful of local low spots or 
streams that don't need much to cause impacts. Transition to 
orographic induced storms over the weekend may also transition the 
bulk of the risk to the terrain for flooding potential, but any 
decent outflow boundary into the valley could spark new convection, 
as we saw yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Fog is possible in the early morning hours mainly near TRI.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of heavy rain.
Showers and storms will be isolated this afternoon and early
evening. Light winds will become more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  72  90  72 /  60  20  60   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  71  87  70 /  60  10  60   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  70  87  70 /  50  10  70   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  67  83  67 /  60  20  70  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99


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