AWUS01 KWNH 051056
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-051554-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...southern Iowa, northern Missouri, far western
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051054Z - 051554Z

Summary...An MCS with training convection will persist for a few
more hours this morning, posing an isolated flash flood risk.

Discussion...Training convection has materialized in earnest
generally along an axis between US 34 and the IA/MO border. 
Within this axis, areas of 1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates were locally
exceeding FFG in spots, posing an isolated flash flood risk.  The
storms were located on the nose of 25-35 kt 850mb flow centered
over eastern KS and northwestern MO, with strong convergence axis
oriented parallel to steering flow aloft favoring training.

The overall scenario for flash flooding will continue for the next
couple of hours given a continued presence of elevated instability
(7C/km midlevel lapse rates) and moisture (1.8 inch PW). 
Low-level flow into the axis of convective training will gradually
veer and weaken through the morning hours, eventually allowing for
storms to re-orient and perhaps lose their training character. 
While some of this activity may reach western Illinois through
13-14Z, flash flood potential with eastern extent is a bit in
doubt at this time and remains contingent on the degree of
convective training.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41759444 41689174 41079069 40329069 39949150 
            40049439 41489554 
$$
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