AWUS01 KWNH 051124
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-051622-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0946
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...coastal areas of North and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051122Z - 051622Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible on an isolated
basis this morning - primarily along coastal areas.

Discussion...Deep convection has remained persistent across the
Gulf Stream and near-coastal areas over the past several hours. 
The storms are embedded within a moist and strongly unstable
airmass, with 2.2 inch PW and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE supporting strong
updrafts and efficient, heavy rain rates.  Low-level confluence
was also supporting the ongoing convection, and with low-level
trajectories oriented inland from the Gulf Stream, recent
convection has developed just inland from the Gulf Stream with
local rates of 0.5-2 inch/hr noted near Charleston, Georgetown,
and areas just east of Wilmington.  While these rates may not
cause flash flooding on a widespread basis, some concern exists
for urbanized areas, where a quick inch of rainfall from efficient
cells could result in local impacts.

Models/CAMs suggest that this threat will persist for a few hours,
with potential for 2-3 inch rainfall totals through 15Z.  Flash
flooding is possible given the scenario.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34877759 34837675 34317701 33447862 32188045 
            32718066 33308023 34177941 

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