587 
FXUS64 KMRX 090547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- A significant warming trend is expected through the weekend with high
  temperatures rising well into the 80s Sunday into next week. 

- No rain is expected through Monday with low RH's for at least
  the next couple of days. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Currently, fairly weak flow is in place aloft with a shortwave and 
upper jet well to our north. High pressure is centered off the New 
England coast. Dry weather will persist with height rises leading to 
a continuation of the warming trend. Very low RH's can be expected 
again, likely dropping well into the 20s or possibly teens. Luckily, 
850mb flow is 5 kts or less with a weak MSLP gradient. By Friday, a 
trough/closed low will move onshore from the Pacific with some 
expansion of ridging from the southwest. This will lead to a 
continuation in warming with highs approaching 80 degrees. High 
pressure will recede some but keep dry conditions in place. 
Similarly low RH values are expected, but low-level flow and the 
MSLP gradient remain weak. 

By Saturday, troughing to the west will approach the Rockies with 
more significant expansion of ridging from the southwest. Another 
surface high will progress to our north, leading to dry northerly 
flow. The height rises will further expand the warming trend. Sunday 
to Monday, western troughing will move through the Rockies with high 
pressure shifting further to the east. With 500mb heights reaching 
summer normals of 5,840m, temperatures will rise well into the 80s 
area-wide. The stronger MSLP gradient and southerly flow will lead 
to increasing winds, combined with low RH values. Rain chances do 
not return until potentially later in the week, but recent trends 
have trended downward in recent days. This will further exacerbate 
the drought with Knoxville and Chattanooga now at their lowest year-
to-date rainfall (Jan 1st - Apr 9th) since 2007.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR, dry, and light winds likely to persist through the period as
high pressure continues to dominate the regional weather pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  47  80  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       75  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  41  75  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)