202 
FXUS64 KMRX 060544
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms will continue each day
  through the forecast period, primarily favoring the afternoon
  and evening hours. A low chance for localized flooding exists
  each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Daily drumbeat of doldrums with diurnal doses of dour showers and 
storms. Outside of any thunderstorm driven winds, winds to remain 
stagnant under the generally weak synoptic forcing with the 
dissipation of the midlevel low. We keep our moist airmass, with 
PWATs around 1.7 - 1.8", enough to help spark at least 
orographically originating storms each day, any valley convection 
will probably follow after the initial terrain upstarts. 

Interestingly Euro depicts a drier airmass working its way in for 
Sunday into Monday, especially Knoxville and north. This airmass 
originates from western Canada, and the GFS matches the progression 
until the airmass reaches the Midwest, at which point the two models 
diverge their solutions. NBM has a local minimum in rain chances on 
those two days, likely tied to the drier solutions in the overall 
ensemble. If rain ends up not occurring at the start of the week 
next week, we probably gain a couple degrees in temperature in 
response.

Regardless, we still have a number of days with scattered daily 
storm chances. No significant severe weather on the horizon at 
least, and no significant heat, but still we carry the typical 
summer heat and typical thunderstorm threats from lightning to gusty 
winds to heavy rainfall. Urban and low lying flooding remains a 
possibility on most days over the next week thanks to the 
combination of moisture and week steering flow, but should remain 
isolated given the scattered nature of the storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Some fog is possible mainly near TRI this morning. Dense fog is
not expected unless the high clouds manage to clear before
sunrise. Showers and storms will be scattered this afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  72  89  72 /  60  20  40  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  71  88  71 /  60  10  50  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  70  88  70 /  60  10  50  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  67  85  67 /  50  30  50  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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