017 
FXUS64 KMRX 141123
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday. High
  confidence in widespread +0.50" totals, with greater than 50%
  chance for an inch or more of rainfall primarily over the
  northern plateau area.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

A weak upper low will be traversing from west to east across the 
Southeastern US over the next 48 hours, bringing much needed 
rainfall to drought-stricken areas. As far as rainfall, the best 
odds of an inch reside across the northern Plateau and north side of 
Knoxville at the moment. There's been some indications in the model 
guidance of a gradient in rainfall rates, with lower rates closer to 
the Georgia border near the core of the low, and higher rates 
further north where the best dynamical support will reside. So there 
may be winners and losers versus overall magnitude of the rainfall. 
Those with outdoor plans on Sunday should still pack a poncho or 
consider alternate plans.

Long range REFS and HREF indicate a period of gusts up to 40 mph in 
the southern TN mountains for a brief spell Sunday morning as flow 
aloft increases to 30 knots. Better wind support resides to the 
west, but strong inversions should keep surface gusts down outside 
of the high terrain. For now will opt against a wind advisory, just 
because the overall support is pretty meager. 

Once the upper low quickly exits to the coast, upper ridge heights 
will begin building in once more, with the H85 ridge anchored over 
the southeastern coast, and anomalous February warmth will follow 
for midweek. Late week there's indications a surface low will cross 
the heartland to the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front down towards 
us. For now there's just low chances of rainfall, likely due to 
timing differences. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Cloud cover will increase at or above 10,000 feet AGL with
generally southerly to southwesterly winds by the afternoon.
Overnight, winds at the surface will weaken, but winds a few
thousand feet AGL will increase. LLWS is possible by the end of
the TAF period but was left out for the time being. Also, rain
chances will increase south to north heading into Sunday morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  47  57  47 /  10  80 100  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  44  52  44 /  10  80 100  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  44  52  44 /  10  80 100  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  40  49  40 /   0  70 100  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


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