ACUS02 KWNS 060541
SWODY2
SPC AC 060539

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur from Iowa across Wisconsin
and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind
gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally
damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast.

...IA...southeast MN...WI...Upper MI...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will move across the northern Plains
and into the Upper MS Valley, with a cold front extending from
northwest WI into IA by late afternoon. A moist air mass with 70s F
dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE. Supporting the potentially strong instability will be
relatively cool 500 mb temperatures to around -10 C.

Storms are likely to form during the afternoon along the front with
scattered marginal hail or strong wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will
not be particularly strong. Some potential may develop for an MCS
over southern areas including IA, and this area will be monitored
for potential greater wind probabilities.

...Northern VA into PA and southern NY...
Midlevel southwesterlies around 25 kt will exist across the
northeastern states on Friday, with weak height falls occurring as a
primary upper trough moves across the Great Lake region. In the low
levels, west/southwest winds around the Atlantic high will maintain
a warm/moist air mass, which when heated during the afternoon should
yield up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, especially near the coastal areas
where dewpoints will be higher.

Despite lack of any surface boundaries, model consensus is for
scattered storms to develop from northern VA/MD into central to
eastern PA and across southern NY during the afternoon. Shear will
be weak but a few clusters of storms may produce gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

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