174 
FXUS64 KMRX 061856
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Daily showers and storms are expected with better coverage by 
Saturday and also Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Some stronger 
storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will be generally near to slightly above normal 
through the period. 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Currently, a strong upper high is centered across the desert 
southwest with a shortwave and downstream jet approaching the Great 
Lakes. Bermuda High pressure is centered in the Atlantic. This 
initial setup has put us in a broad southwesterly flow pattern. 
Seasonally warm and humid conditions continue with sufficient 
moisture for diurnal showers and storms, already ongoing along the 
higher terrain. With 1,500 J/kg or higher MLCAPE and no shear, a few 
stronger storms may be possible, but the overall severe threat is 
limited by lapse rates of 5.5 C/km or less. Isolated flooding also 
remains possible for slow-moving or repeated storms. For Friday, the 
shortwave advances towards the area, but the upper jet will weaken 
and lift north. The overall environment tomorrow looks comparable to 
today with slightly higher coverage possible due to the advancing 
shortwave. By Saturday, the shortwave will advance even further into 
the area, leading to upper-level height falls. Based on the current 
data, the resulting convective environment looks more favorable than 
today and tomorrow with mid-level lapse rates reaching near 6 C/km 
and MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg. PWATs will remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 
inch range. This may provide even better coverage and slightly 
higher potential for strong to severe storms. 

By Sunday, upper-level flow shifts northward with variable 
indications of a 500mb shortwave. Overall, there is a signal for 
less moisture, which would limit coverage compared to previous days. 
This pattern will be similar on Monday as well. By Tuesday and 
Wednesday, a combination of low-level heating and cooling aloft due 
to shortwaves will produce a more notable convective environment. 
Current indications suggest lapse rates reaching 6 C/km to even 7 
C/km, which would provide greater instability. A lot is uncertain 
about the exact placement of this environment, but strong to severe 
storms with damaging winds are certainly possible. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Another afternoon of shower and thunderstorm chances are ongoing.
HAve opted with TEMPO groups for now as most previous afternoons
have seen convection occur at the airports. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  90  72  91 /  20  50  30  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  89  71  89 /  10  40  30  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  88  71  88 /  10  30  30  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  85  67  84 /  20  50  30  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...99


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