200 
FXUS64 KMRX 071053 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
653 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Daily showers and storms are expected to continue today, with 
  greater storm coverage on Saturday.

- Lower rain chances Sunday and Monday, followed by increasing 
  chances of showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will be generally near to slightly above normal 
  through the period. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Little change to the general pattern and the sensible weather is 
expected today from the last few days. We remain between a ridge off 
the NC Outer Banks and a trough in the vicinity of the MS River. 
This trough will make slow eastward progress, and may contribute to 
some high rain chances in a large portion of the area on Saturday. 

Today is expected to be another day of convection developing in the 
terrain of the mountains and Cumberland Plateau, with slow steering 
flow. Storm propagation will be mainly due to outflow from dying 
cells. Localized flooding under these slow-moving cells with heavy 
rainfall will again be the main threat this afternoon. MLCAPE around 
1000 L/kg with little to no shear should mean a very low threat of 
strong to severe storms. Saturday will have better midlevel forcing 
with the approaching shortwave trough. As a result, convection may 
initiate earlier in the day, and not only in the higher terrain. 
Localized flooding will be the main threat again, with a low risk of 
damaging downburst winds. 

By Sunday, upper-level flow shifts to the NW as the trough moves 
east of our area. Overall, there is a signal for less moisture, 
which would limit coverage compared to previous days. Drying of the 
column continues into Monday as a high pressure ridge will be 
building to our west. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a broad upper trough 
begins to develop across the eastern Conus, and embedded shortwaves 
will being to bring higher rain chances to the area. The combination 
of low-level heating and cooling aloft due to shortwaves will 
produce a more notable convective environment. Current indications 
suggest lapse rates reaching 6 C/km to even 7 C/km, which would 
provide greater instability. A lot is uncertain about the exact 
placement of this environment, but the potential for strong to 
severe storms is something to keep an eye on for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For the 12z TAF package, will go with a VFR forecast through the
period. Overnight fog/low clouds didn't materialize near any of
the TAF sites. Suspect today's convective coverage will be
similar or slightly less than yesterday, which gives low 
confidence in any SHRA/TSRA affecting a terminal. A mention of 
VCTS will suffice. Given this, and low probabilities for fog or
low clouds in HREF guidance, will go with a persistence forecast 
and keep conditions VFR this coming night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  72  91  73 /  40  10  50  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  71  90  72 /  30  10  50  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  71  89  71 /  30  10  50  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  68  85  68 /  30  10  50  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)