FOUS30 KWBC 100808
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward
through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations
advect northward across the region as the low level flow
strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward
into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support
areas of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy
rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities
show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall
across these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to
be less than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of
3-4+ inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for
excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies
surging to +3 deviations above seasonal normal across the Plains.
Upper dynamics will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough
entering the West Coast, as well as a shortwave trough traversing
the High Plains. As ridging builds in across the east, this will
also promote strong southerly flow and a low level jet over the
Southern Plains and Texas to advect moisture and instability in the
area. At the surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve
as an initiating mechanism for convection. The latest guidance
continues to depict a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's
Slight Risk across the region. WPC maintained the Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall from the West Texas/Hill Country northeast to
the Red River Valley. A Marginal extends from the Rio Grande to
southeast Kansas.

Campbell/Wilder


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the
Southern/Centrals Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given
favorable wind shear and instability in place. Moisture transported northward
from the western Gulf to the Midwest between the eastern U.S.
upper ridge and the trough over the Rockies will maintain enhanced
rainfall. And with limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, it will keep an elevated
threat for local flash flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk remains
in effect from central-eastern Texas to southeast Kansas/southwest
Missouri.

Campbell

$$
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 * Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)