ACUS01 KWNS 071236
SWODY1
SPC AC 071234

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts are possible
this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
states.  Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across
portions of the central U.S. and Arizona.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A relatively nondescript pattern is located over the region between
a Bermuda high and troughing over the Upper Midwest.  Seasonably
strong heating of a moist airmass (12 UTC Dulles, VA raob sampled a
14 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will support a
destabilizing boundary layer and scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon.  A few thunderstorm clusters will probably evolve
through the late afternoon into the early evening as this activity
moves through the I-95 corridor.  Isolated strong to locally severe
gusts (i.e., 50-60 mph) capable of scattered wind damage will be the
primary threat with the stronger cores. 
 
...Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving southeastward over the Red River Valley towards the Upper
Great Lakes later today.  In response to forcing for ascent
associated with the disturbance, a couple of ongoing thunderstorm
clusters will probably continue this morning.  There is low
confidence in the evolution of these clusters and an associated
severe risk.  Nonetheless, as a cold front continues to push
southeast across the Upper Midwest later today, additional storm
development is likely but details are nebulous at this time.  Model
guidance indicates a greater overlap of CAPE/shear may focus across
western IA later this afternoon.  Will re-evaluate in subsequent
outlook updates for whether a mesoscale corridor can be identified
with a locally greater severe risk within the larger Marginal Risk
denoting isolated hail/wind potential.

...Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM
into the TX Panhandle this afternoon.  Relatively high uncertainty
remains regarding storm placement removed from the higher terrain of
northeast NM.  Regardless, ample heating of an adequately moist but
deepening boundary layer will support a thermodynamic profile
favoring severe gusts with the stronger cores and associated
outflow.  

Further east into OK, KS, and the Ozarks, ongoing elevated storms
from northern OK into eastern KS are likely rooted near the base of
the EML.  This activity will probably diminish in spatial extent
through midday, but it is possible additional storms will develop
along the outflow and could yield localized strong/severe storm
potential.  Will defer severe highlights at this time due to low
predictability.  

...Arizona...
Latest convection-allowing model ensembles and MPAS guidance imply
some risk for widely scattered storms to develop over the Mogollon
Rim and the higher terrain in southeast AZ and gradually spread into
the lower deserts this evening.  Given the steep lapse rates
preceding this potential convection and possible scenario, have
introduced low-severe wind probabilities.  

...Nebraska/South Dakota...
Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of
northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as
isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification
of a low-level jet.  Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a
plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote adequate
buoyancy for a few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm
coverage is limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for
ascent). However, strong shear across the region will likely promote
organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of
producing large hail.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/07/2026

$$
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