060 
FXUS64 KMRX 071826
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Daily showers and storms are likely, especially in the afternoon 
and early evening. Coverage will be more focused along the higher 
terrain through the weekend and more widespread coverage next week.

- Isolated flooding and strong wind gusts are possible with 
potentially better chances Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

- Temperatures will be generally near to slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Currently, upper-level shortwave troughing is centered to the 
northwest with strong ridging over the desert southwest. The Bermuda 
High is also strong to our east. This will promote continuation of a 
southwesterly flow pattern with moisture and vertical ascent 
sufficient for diurnal rain chances. This morning, cloud cover has 
limited heating with the higher terrain being the focus again for 
better coverage. PWATs remain near 1.7 to 1.9 with peak instability 
around 1,500 J/kg. As in recent days, isolated flooding is possible 
within slower-moving or training storms. Strong wind gusts are also 
possible. Saturday's pattern will be very similar with a slight 
increase in upper-level flow to over 40 kts and potentially less 
moisture. This will keep chances for scattered showers and storms, 
especially along the higher terrain. By Sunday, the pattern becomes 
more zonal aloft but with better low-level heating. Overall, 
instability and moisture will be comparable to recent days. By 
Monday, flow aloft will strengthen again with further heating in the 
lower-levels increasing overall lapse rates to 6 C/km or greater. 
However, the environment will be inhibited by drier air arriving 
from the north. 

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the pattern will become more northwesterly 
with similarly elevated mid-level lapse rates, followed by an 
increase in moisture. This will lead to better potential of 
convection compared to Monday, likely stronger than what is expected 
earlier in the period. Wednesday into Thursday, the upper jet will 
progress southward, leading to better support and at least some 
shear that could help organize storms.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Morning clouds had kept MVFR in CHA until just recently with VFR
expected the rest of the day. Showers and storms have already been
developing across the higher terrain with further development
expected towards late afternoon. VCTS was maintained but delayed
based on recent trends. Winds will remain generally southerly to
southwesterly becoming light and variable overnight as rain
coverage decreases. Reductions are possible within showers and
storms but were left out of the TAFs because of limited
confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  91  73  93 /  10  40  10  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  89  72  91 /   0  30  10  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  89  71  91 /   0  40  10  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  85  68  87 /  10  40  20  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


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