342 
FXUS64 KMRX 110648
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- A warming trend will continue this weekend, with above normal 
temperatures expected through next week. Record highs are possible 
next week. 

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
  drought and fire conditions. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The forecast can be characterized by SE ridging and surface high 
pressure eventually moving off of the coast. Weather systems will 
primarily round the top of the ridge, keeping our area from seeing 
much needed rainfall into the coming week. With high pressure 
eventually situated to our east, southwest flow will send in much 
warmer temperatures in the coming days. Some may see their first 90 
degree reading of the year/season. A table of daily record highs 
will be at the bottom of this discussion, as records could be tied 
or broken.

The primary concern with persistent dry conditons since Easter, for 
most, will be an increasing threat for fire potential; with 
temperatures warming and not much in the way of moisture return. 
Minimum RHs will mostly range in the 20 and 30 percent range. SW 
winds are forecast to increase Sunday afternoon and most likely 
remain in that general direction much of the week. Southwest winds 
tend to be a favorable direction with a funneling-like effect up 
valley, thus, creating stronger gusts. SPC Fire has placed western 
parts of the forecast area under a Day 3 marginal risk for increased 
winds, temps, low RH, paired with dry fuels concurrent for at least 
3 hours. Even though winds will be stronger on Monday, increased 
cloud cover may keep RHs from getting much lower.

Any chance for precipitation at all? A frontal boundary will drape 
across the area later today. It's possible a shower or thunderstorm 
develops near the northern plateau into southwest VA later this 
afternoon. CAMs and deterministic models depict this chance, 
although it'll be low. HREF probs show no more than a 30 percent 
chance of a tenth of an inch or greater. The same areas may be 
brushed by additional chances Monday, possibly Tuesday. The next 
best chance of widespread rain for the entire forecast area most 
likely won't be until the end of the forecast period. 


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge 
04-11   87(2001)       86(2001)       86(2001)       85(2001)
04-12   89(1887)       87(1930)       84(1945)       87(1948)       
04-13   88(1887)       89(1887)       86(1981)       86(2017)       
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)       
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds continue through TAF cycle once 
again. A very low chance an isolated light shower develops in the
TYS vicinity this afternoon, but with the dry air in place
probabilities are too low to include any mention at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  56  86  61 /  10   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  54  85  62 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  54  84  60 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  51  82  57 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


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