901 
FXUS64 KMRX 080501
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
101 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Daily showers and storms continue into next week, especially in
  the afternoon and early evening. Coverage will be greatest 
  along the higher terrain.

- Isolated flooding and strong wind gusts are possible with the 
  strongest storms.

- Temperatures will be generally near to slightly above normal. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A mid/upper level circulation is located over AR, and this will be 
the main feature of the pattern across the region into early next 
week. The low will slowly track east today, putting our area in a 
midlevel deformation zone. The high PW and weak flow aloft points to 
another day of scattered to numerous showers and storms that have 
little movement, initiating over the higher terrain and mainly 
propagating into the Valley with new development on outflow 
boundaries. As we have seen for the past few days, these slow-moving 
storms can produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds - expect 
the same potential today. Sunday looks similar as the closed low 
transitions to an open wave, but still remains over West/Middle TN. 
PW values remain in the 1.8-2 inch range with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE 
and negligible shear. The trough moves over the area on Monday, 
which may give a little better instability and shear, particularly 
in the southern half. 

By Tuesday, the pattern will become more northwesterly with the 
trough to our east and a high pressure ridge to our west. This 
brings some drier air aloft to the area, along with some steeper mid-
level lapse rates. These storms could pose a little more of an 
organized severe threat, although shear still looks weak. For 
Wednesday and beyond, we will remain in a NW flow with embedded 
shortwave troughs bringing some daily chances of showers and storms. 
Specifics on timing and severe/flooding potential are uncertain at 
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For the upcoming 06z aviation package, ensemble guidance has 
fairly high probabilities for fog and low clouds through daybreak 
at KTYS and KCHA. Given satellite imagery shows fog/low clouds 
forming INVOF KCHA already, this guidance seems reasonable. 
Included a TEMPO for some IFR flight categories at KCHA but will 
leave KTYS at MVFR levels. Chances for IFR conditions are lower 
there in guidance. Those are the main points. Saturday afternoon 
should be similar to Friday, so a PROB30 for TSRA should cover 
that. Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  73  92  73 /  50  10  70  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  71  91  73 /  40  10  30  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  71  90  72 /  50  10  40  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  68  88  69 /  40  20  30  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


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 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)