FOUS11 KWBC 140832
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026

...Cascades... Days 1 & 3...

A broad upper-level troughing pattern off the Pacific NW coast
will continue to supply lingering low-mid level moisture that
allows for light snow through this morning. Snow levels will drop
to as low as 2000-3000ft today and into Saturday evening, bringing
snow to many of the passes over the WA Cascades. Following a lull
in snowfall Saturday night and into Sunday, another surge of
moisture will be supplied by a strengthening 500mb closed-low west
of British Columbia. Sharp height falls and excellent 500mb PVA
will be paired with an influx of 850-300mb mean-layer moisture to
produce periods of snow. Snow levels will plummet to as low as
800ft around the WA Cascades, while 2000 ft snow levels in the OR
Cascades will be more common. While these snow levels are getting
quite low, snowfall totals below 2,000ft in the WA/OR Cascades will
remain light. The heaviest snowfall will reside above 3,000ft
72-hour WPC probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for
snowfall totals >4" for both Snoqualmie Pass and Stevens Pass.
Given the long duration but lack of heavy hourly rates, WSSI-P
shows the chances for Minor Impacts are generally on the low side
(20-40%) with Monday having the best chances for some slick travel
conditions at pass level.

...California... Days 2-3...

...Multiple days of heavy and disruptive snowfall to affect the
California mountain ranges beginning Sunday and continuing into next week...

A pair of potent Pacific storm systems will work together to direct
copious amounts of moisture at the mountain ranges of the "Golden
State" starting Sunday. The first upper low west of California will
kickoff this multi-day heavy snow event on Sunday with snow falling
in the higher terrain of the Siskiyou, Shasta, and Salmon
Mountains. By Sunday night the upper low approaches, causing
heights to fall over CA and the strengthening IVT to direct
subtropical moisture at the state. Monday marks the beginning of
heavy snowfall along the Sierra Nevada with snow levels will
generally ranging from 4500ft to 6000ft from north to south
initially, then fall below 3000ft across northern CA as the other
potent Pacific trough approaches from the northwest. In both cases,
the state will be placed ahead of a pair of 500mb jet streaks that
will generate excellent upper-level divergence aloft, along with a
barrage of Pacific moisture and strong topographically-enhanced
snowfall rates. Heavy snowfall is expected as far south as the
Transverse Ranges above 6,000ft with WPC probabilities showing
moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals >8" in the peaks of
the San Gabriel and San Bernadino Mountains.

California's mountain ranges welcome the snow, although it will
come down fast and furious on Monday and continue into Tuesday.
Through the end of this discussion's timeframe (12Z Tues), multiple
feet of snow will have fallen above 6,000ft along the Sierra
Nevada. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >24" of
snow having fallen along the I-80 pass by 12Z Tuesday and more snow
still to come. The WSSI-P depicts a highly impactful snow event
along the Sierra Nevada with high chances (>70%) for Major Impacts
above 6,00ft, including the I-80 pass. In fact, for the higher
elevations above 8,000ft, the WSSI-P shows moderate chances (>50%)
for Extreme Impacts, suggesting the potential for significant
impacts to infrastructure. Travel will be dangerous to impossible
in the Sierra Nevada into Tuesday. Note that there are also high
chances (>70%) for Minor Impacts for I-5 around Mount Shasta,
signifying potential travel delays for I-5 in the more elevated
terrain of northern CA.

...Intermountain West... Days 1-3...

Pacific moisture ahead of the longwave upper trough off the West
Coast will spill over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and reach many
ranges across the Intermountain West this weekend and into early
next week. With a lack of a frigid airmass ahead of this healthy
moisture source, snow will largely be confined to many of the
taller mountain peaks that sorely need beneficial snowpack. The
heaviest snowfall will reside in the Bitterroots, the Lewis Range,
Sawtooth, and the Blue Mountains whee 72-hour WPC probabilities
show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >8".
Localized amounts ranging between 12-24" are most likely to occur
along the remote reaches of the Lewis Range and peaks of the Blue
Mountains. Farther south, most accumulations in the Great Basin,
the Wasatch, Uinta, Mogollon Rim, and CO/NM Rockies will be on the
lighter side. The peaks around Zion Nat'l Park on north along the
Wasatch sport moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals
>4". Otherwise, most mountain ranges are likely to see 1-4" of
snowfall, with additional snowfall still to come on Tuesday.

...Northeast... Day 2...

The last 24 hours have seen some model guidance (GFS/ECMWF)
gradually creep north with the precipitation shield. This is due to
the approaching 500mb shortwave over western PA coming in
stronger, thus leading to healthier PVA aloft and more 250mb jet
streak enhancement aloft. While boundary layer temperatures along
I-95 south of Philadelphia remain quite marginal on Sunday,
elevated terrain north and west of the Delaware River are likely to
have better chances to see wet snow Sunday afternoon. As the upper
trough in the Carolinas spawns low pressure over the NC Outer
Banks Sunday evening, 850-700mb WAA to the north of the low will
support narrow banding of snow from eastern PA and northern NJ to
the NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southern New England. There
remains notable spread in model guidance in the position of this
band, but trends in not only the GFS/ECMWF guidance but also their
AI counterparts are showing additional support for a ribbon of
light snow. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)
for snowfall totals >1" from the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys on
east to Long Island, but probabilities for >2" of snowfall are
<20%, showing that most totals are minor and likely to range
between a coating-2". There is the potential for additional
changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours.

The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Mullinax

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