164 
FXUS64 KMRX 111746
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
146 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- A warming trend will continue this weekend, with above normal 
temperatures expected through next week. Record highs are possible 
next week. 

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
  drought and fire conditions. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Very little has changed regarding the forecast for the next week.
A large high pressure ridge across the Southeast will be the
dominant feature, providing dry and warm conditions. A series of 
low pressure systems will cross the Plains and Great Lakes, but 
the strength of this ridge will prevent any precip from reaching 
our area until perhaps late next week when the ridge shifts off 
the Atlantic coastline.

The main weather concern for this period will be fire weather
conditions. As high temperatures warm into the 80s, afternoon RH 
values will drop into the 20s. Winds will increase tomorrow to 
around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20, then increase again on 
Monday, 10-20 with gusts 25-30 mph, aided by channeling of SW 
winds up the TN Valley. Monday will have some cloud cover, which
may aid in keeping RH values from dropping below 25%. Fire 
weather interests should stay aware of these conditions setting up
for Sunday and Monday, and potentially Tuesday and Wednesday as 
well. 

High temperatures will approach or exceed records next week. We 
might come up a few degrees short of records on Sunday and Monday, 
but highs in the range of 85 to 90 will be forecast for the TN
Valley Tuesday through Friday. Given the dry ground conditions, 
it would not be surprising to see temperatures higher than that, 
as model guidance may be underdoing daytime temperatures.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
04-12   89(1887)       87(1930)       84(1945)       87(1948)       
04-13   88(1887)       89(1887)       86(1981)       86(2017)       
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)       
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions continue through this period. Winds may approach 10
kt at all sites with gusts around 20 kt at TYS late in this TAF 
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  86  61  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  85  62  81 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  84  60  81 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  82  57  79 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


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