650 
FXUS64 KMRX 090532
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
132 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be around each day through next 
  Saturday, with the afternoons generally the period of most 
  activity. 

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to 
  severe each afternoon at least through Tuesday (and possibly 
  beyond), with damaging winds and localized flooding the main 
  threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal
  for this time of year. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A trough that was located across KY/West TN/AR last evening will 
be making slow eastward progress today, crossing our area late in 
the day. Weak dynamics with the trough will mean generally similar
sensible weather to what we have had for the past several days. 
Weak flow, PWAT values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, and MLCAPE 
values of 1000-1500 J/kg point to another day with a potential for
scattered convection with a few storms becoming strong to 
marginally severe, with strong winds the primary threat along with
localized flooding.

With the trough east of our area by Monday, we will be in a NW flow 
through the mid to upper levels. This will bring some midlevel 
drying and lower PW, but also greater instability with lapse rates 
6.5-7 C/km and MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Shear will 
continue to be lacking, but given the better thermodynamic profile, 
storms on Monday and Tuesday could pose a slightly higher threat of 
becoming strong to severe with damaging winds still the primary 
threat. 

For Wednesday onward, a ridge over the central US and a broad trough 
over the western Atlantic will keep our area in a NW flow. Some 
disturbances in the flow and/or upstream MCS remnants may bring 
chances of showers and storms each day, with the northern areas 
favored for the higher rain chances and potential for strong storms. 
A frontal boundary may set up south of the OH Valley later in the 
week, possibly into southern WV, which could be the focus for some 
heavy rain and flooding concerns around Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

There's decent uncertainty with regards to flight categories 
through mid morning. Ongoing mid/high clouds across East Tennessee
should gradually dissipate through daybreak. Where these thin/clear
out, a mix of fog and low clouds seem likely, most likely a mix 
of IFR CIGS and VSBY as opposed to MVFR. A return to VFR 
conditions is expected by 14-15z. Then we should see another round
of SCT to NUM SHRA/TSRA across the region this afternoon into the
early evening. Best odds are near/south of I-40 so will include 
at KTYS and KCHA only.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  73  92  74 /  40  20  50  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  72  91  73 /  30  10  20  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  72  91  72 /  20  10  30  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


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