982 
FXUS64 KMRX 121721
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
  this week. Record highs are possible. 

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
  drought and fire conditions. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The forecast can be characterized by SE ridging and a strong surface 
high over New England, that will eventually meander to just off the 
coast of the Mid-Atlantic. Weather systems will primarily round the 
top of the ridge, keeping our area from seeing much needed rainfall 
into the coming week. With high pressure eventually situating to our 
east, southwest flow will send in much warmer temperatures in the 
coming days. Some may see their first 90 degree reading of the 
year/season. Any day with low RHs in the afternoon and really good 
atmospheric mixing, could see temperatures a couple of degrees 
warmer than guidance suggests. A table of daily record highs will be 
at the bottom of this discussion, as records could be tied or broken.

The primary concern with persistent dry conditons since Easter, for 
most, will be an increasing threat for fire weather; with 
temperatures continually warming and not much in the way of moisture 
return. Minimum RHs will mostly fall in the 20 and 30 percent range. 
SW winds are forecast to increase this afternoon and most likely 
remain in that general direction much of the week. Southwest winds 
tend to be a favorable direction with a funneling-like effect up 
valley, thus, creating stronger gusts. Gusts up to around 25 mph 
possible today, increasing to near 30 mph tomorrow. SPC Fire placed 
much of the forecast area under an elevated fire weather threat due 
to winds, low RH, and dry fuels. Even though winds will be stronger 
tomorrow, increased cloud cover may keep RHs from worsening with 
mixing heights forecast to be a few thousand feet lower.

Any chance for precipitation at all? A couple of showers that 
developed yesterday were able to spit out up to around two 
hundredths of an inch across a portion of northeast TN, if you can 
believe what was recorded. Today will be dry, but it's possible our 
northwestern fringes get brushed by light precipitation tomorrow and 
Tuesday. A front will try to develop and punch through the ridge by 
the end of the week, but confidence is low on just how much 
precipitation could fall. QPF in very dry patterns tends to get cut 
down once closer to the event. The LREF shows no more than a 40 
percent chance of greater than a tenth of an inch Thursday into 
Friday. And that's only for the northern Plateau into SW VA. The 
next best chance of widespread rain for the entire forecast area 
doesn't appear to be until just outside the forecast range, perhaps 
early next week.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
04-12   89(1887)       87(1930)       84(1945)       87(1948)       
04-13   88(1887)       89(1887)       86(1981)       86(2017)       
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)       
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Increasing southerly to southwesterly winds are expected with
limited high clouds. Overnight, LLWS is likely at the sites due 
to winds over 30 kts at around 2,000 feet AGL and light winds at 
the surface. Breezier winds are expected tomorrow. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  83  60  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  82  61  85 /   0  10   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  82  59  85 /   0  10   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  79  56  83 /   0  10   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


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