082 
FXUS64 KMRX 130654
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
254 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
  this week. Record highs are possible. 

- There is very limited chances for light rain through the
  forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire
  weather conditions. 
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

In general, the upper ridging over Florida and the northern Gulf 
will largely maintain control over the weather across East Tennessee 
for much of the coming week, keeping any impulses in the upper 
levels situated to our northwest and resulting in continued hot and 
dry conditions for much of the CWA. It's possible the ridge breaks 
down by Thu/Fri, allowing an upper trough and associated surface 
front to swing through the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys. 
Confidence is low however, especially with regards to how much rain 
might fall with any frontal passage.

Monday:
An upper jet streak will traverse the Ohio valley during the 
morning hours. This coupled with broad moist return flow from the 
lower Mississippi valley up into eastern Kentucky, may be enough 
enough for some sparse showers over middle TN and into the northern 
plateau and our Virginia counties late Monday morning into the early 
afternoon hours. However, I'm not terribly impressed with the rain 
chances. Forecast soundings show essentially a dry atmosphere below 
10-11k feet at Crossville, Knoxville, and Tri-Cities during the day. 
I wouldn't be surprised to see some returns on radar, but it may be 
mostly virga with little to no rain reaching the ground. Otherwise, 
we will see good mixing again on Monday with gradient flow producing 
gusts into the 20-25kt range across much of the TN valley. Will once 
again side with NBM 10th percentile dewpoints, with resulting 
afternoon RH values dipping into the 25-30 percent range. One caveat 
to all of this would be that, depending on how thick and expansive 
the mid clouds area, forecast highs could be too high, especially in 
the north where the better mid level moisture is. This could also 
affect afternoon RH values. Nevertheless, fire weather concerns will 
remain elevated accordingly, and will continue the SPS for fire 
danger in our Virginia counties. We also remain highlighted by SPC 
with respect to fire weather concerns on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Upper ridge amplifies over the northern Gulf and Florida panhandle 
region on Tuesday, with the upper flow becoming increasingly 
amplified to our west as a trough digs into the plains. This pattern 
continues through Thursday and will keep dry conditions in place 
locally as the best moisture return is shunted further northwest. 
Afternoon highs will climb Tuesday onward as the high strengthens, 
with calendar day record highs within reach Tuesday and Wednesday 
for sure. Increasing clouds on Thursday may limit the potential for 
record heat that day. Will continue to include the record 
temperatures section in the AFD below. Afternoon RH will continue to 
run low, but should mostly be in the 30-35 percent range as opposed 
to dipping below 30 for Tuesday through Thursday due to persistent 
southerly flow.

Thursday onward:

Models show the ridge weakening and a disturbance approaching from 
the west by late Thursday. NBM has some 25-35 percent rain chances 
mainly over the plateau and northern counties Thursday night into 
Friday morning, which seems reasonable for now. Certainly doesn't 
look like a slam dunk case for rain. Better chances may exist beyond 
the forecast period, during the latter half of next weekend.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
04-13   88(1887)       89(1887)       86(1981)       86(2017)       
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)       
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Strengthening LLJ will lead to a period of LLWS for the AM hours.
S to SW winds will gust between 15 and 25 knots starting around 
noon and continue through the early evening hours. Increased 
coverage of mid to high level clouds are also expected for the 
period, though conditions will remain VFR. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  60  87  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  60  85  60 /  10   0  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  58  85  58 /  10  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  54  83  57 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)