FOUS30 KWBC 130756
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was maintained for this
period from eastern Minnesota to Lower Michigan. Although there was
a modest decrease in the neighborhood probabilities for >1" totals,
there still 20 to 40% across eastern Wisconsin and western
Michigan as a formidable LLJ and increasing convergence within a
progressing warm front could very well maximize the potential for
heavier precip. Some rivers and streams across the region have
ongoing minor flooding and any additional rainfall could speed up snow melt.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

A developing upper jet coupling will likely aid in regional ascent
with fairly generous instability axis situated from the Corn Belt
to the southern Great Lakes and points south. Multiple areas of
convection expected for this period from the Southern Plains to the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. The main area of focus will be
over the Midwest where guidance is depicting several hours of cells
producing up to 1.5 inches/hr rainfall rates from Iowa to western
New York and SPC has identified this part of the country as having
an Enhanced Risk for severe weather that includes the potential for
damaging winds, very large hail and tornados.

Meanwhile convection will fire up ahead of the dryline and
approaching cold front across the Plains. The environment will be
favorable for a few mesoscale convective systems to develop and the
limited eastward progression will likely result in areas that have
excessive rainfall leading to some instances of flash flooding. A
Marginal Risk area span from the Texas Hill Country northeastward
to the Midwest and western Great Lakes. SPC has highlighted much
of the same area as having a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TEXAS TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

The overall setup will be very similar for this period just
shifted a bit to the east. SPC continues to have a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail and a potential for tornadoes while WPC maintains a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall from eastern Texas to the Midwest/Great
Lakes region. Areal averages will generally be less than 1.5
inches but a few locations may exceed 1.75 inches. Guidance still
has a fair amount of r spread on where some of the highest amounts
will occur but consensus is hinting southeast Oklahoma to the Ozark
mountains with a secondary focus from central Illinois to northwest Ohio.

Campbell
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 * Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)