ACUS11 KWNS 101330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101329 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-101500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...southeast Pennsylvania...northeast
Maryland...northern Delaware...and southern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101329Z - 101500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase with an ongoing MCS.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 1325Z, radar imagery showed a small MCS with a
leading bow structure moving through Lebanon and Lancaster Counties
in southeast PA at around 30 kt. The system has a history of
producing wind damage; however, recent radar trends indicate
decreasing echo heights, potentially suggesting a weakening trend.
Visible satellite shows cloud-free skies ahead of the MCS with
temperatures already around 80 degrees observed within the inflow
air mass. Modification of the 12Z PIT sounding for similar
boundary-layer conditions suggests that only minimal convective
inhibition exists for surface-based parcels. As such, it's possible
the MCS could restrengthen within the next hour or so with an
increased potential for damaging winds.

..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40247720 40527662 40437525 40207420 39827398 39457409
            39397467 39517593 39637700 40247720 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

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