748 
FXUS64 KMRX 131723
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
  this week. Record highs are possible. 

- There is very limited chances for light rain through the
  forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire
  weather conditions. 
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A large high pressure ridge will remain over FL/Gulf/western 
Atlantic through this forecast period, which will provide above 
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions to the Southern 
Appalachians and TN Valley. 

We are seeing a good amount of cloud cover today from a jet streak 
and shortwave trough passing by to our north, but once that passes 
to our east tonight, mostly sunny clear  will return. High temps 
tomorrow will approach records for the date, with the same expected 
on Wednesday. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather 
interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both days for most 
locations, but thankfully the SW winds will be mainly in the 5-15 
mph range. With these lighter winds, we do not anticipate the need 
for any Fire Danger statements over the next few days. 

Models show the ridge drifting southward a bit on Thursday, allowing 
a mid/upper level trough and jet streak to cross the region. NBM has 
been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance 
range north of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. Looking at the 
NAM forecast soundings Thursday afternoon, there is a strong stable 
and dry layer that will have to be overcome for any measureable 
precip, leading to skepticism of the NBM PoPs. Don't get your hopes 
up for any meaingful rainfall just yet. Highs will be pushing near 
records again on Friday and Saturday as the ridge amplifies 
northward again. Better rain chances may exist on Sunday as models 
show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a 
cold front through our area.  

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge      
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)       
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)
04-19   91(2002)       90(1941)       90(1941)       90(2002)  

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Gusty winds will be the main aviation impact through this
afternoon, reaching around 25 kt. Winds will drop under 10 kt 
around 21-23Z, then increase again tomorrow around noon, with
gusts to 20 kt possible. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  85  60  87 /   0  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  85  58  87 /  10  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  83  57  85 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


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