948 
FXUS64 KMRX 101937
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
337 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 317 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the
  end of the work week, with the best chance of rain during each
  afternoon.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to 
  severe each afternoon with damaging winds and localized flooding
  the main threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal
  for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A quiet start to the week before an active pattern settles in 
through the end of the work week. Temperatures have warmed up quick 
after morning fog burned off. Highs will top out a few degrees 
either side of normal for mid-August. A few very isolated showers 
cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening, but most locations 
should stay dry today. Looking aloft, northwest flow will dominate 
the upper air pattern over the next 7 days. Our current airmass will 
remain locked into the region with surface dew points in the upper 
60s to mid 70s and highs near-normal. This will provide enough 
instability for near daily thunderstorm and shower chances Tuesday 
through the end of the work week.  

There is some uncertainty with the potential for a decaying MCS 
Tuesday morning to move into our Virginia and northeastern TN 
counties. There is higher confidence for an additional MCS to impact 
the northern forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening. A potent 
shortwave will cross through the S Great Lakes and Ohio Valley 
region mid day Tuesday. This will provide additional forcing and 
support for a line of thunderstorms (MCS) to develop upstream over 
the Ohio Valley that will track southeast and eventually southward 
into our northern forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening. 
Unfortunately, this is not a confidence forecast for 
placement/location given the potential for the morning convection 
that could impact where boundaries and gradients set up, which will 
impact where afternoon TS develops/tracks. There is moderate 
confidence on timing for this primary round. 

Forecast soundings from hi-res guidance support non-zero bulk 
shear that would support potential for isolated severe weather. 
HRRR soundings highlight a favorable environment for damaging 
winds with storms on Tuesday. This would make sense given the 
potential MCS or linear storm mode. There is also a non-zero 
chance for a tornado or two in our Virginia counties. This lines 
up with the latest SPC outlook for Day two. A Slight risk (level 2
of 5) in our Virginia area with a Marginal (1 of 5) down into our
TN area. Flash flooding and flooding cannot be ruled out given 
the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain 
tracking over the northern forecast area in Virginia and NE 
Tennessee. The signal from the 12Z guidance for the heaviest 
rainfall remains north of our forecast area.

Wednesday through Friday look similar with respect to the forecast. 
Northwest flow persists with the potential of afternoon showers and 
thunderstorms. Severe threat will be low, but non-zero with wind
as the primary hazard. Heavy rain will also remain a concern this
week. Any location that receives multiple rounds of rain will have
a greater risk of flooding. This pattern supports MCS formation, 
but the further out in time, the greater the uncertainty as far as
timing, extent, and impacts. The upper level pattern begins to 
change for the weekend as heights increase as an upper level 
ridge begins to build into the region. This will support 
temperatures to trend a few degrees warmer than normal Saturday 
and Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period at CHA and TYS.
Removed PROB30 for TSRA from all sites as probs are now less. 
However, left VCSH in at CHA due to nearby showers just south of 
the TN line. TRI should be VFR other than another bout of 
overnight fog, then back to VFR tomorrow morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  93  74  93 /  10  30  30  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  92  74  90 /   0  20  40  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  92  72  91 /   0  20  40  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  88  69  86 /  10  30  60  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...99


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