936 
FXUS64 KMRX 140631
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into 
  the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- There are limited chances precipitation through the forecast
  period, with little relief from the worsening drought and fire
  weather conditions. 
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf and SE 
CONUS at least into the first half of the weekend, keeping moisture 
very limited over our area and temperatures well above normal for 
this time of year.  

Significant cloud cover Monday helped to hold temperatures down a 
bit, but today and Wednesday will bring fewer clouds, more 
insolation, and higher temperatures as highs make a run at records 
both days. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather 
interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and 
Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will 
not be higher than the 5-15 mph range.

Models show the ridge being suppressed on Thursday/Thursday night as 
a mid/upper level short wave trough crosses the region, although it 
will still be very warm.  The NBM has been trending higher with rain 
chances, which are now in the chance range for all but the far 
southern portions of the area in the late Thu/early Thu night time 
frame. The NAM is more aggressive as is often the case, but overall 
model/ensemble data suggests moisture will be limited and the better 
convective energy will be to our west. Some weakening convection 
will likely approach from the west, but it is still questionable how 
much will make it into our area. Tempering any expectations for 
significant rainfall with this system looks prudent for now.  

The ridge will build back Friday behind the short wave. High 
temperatures will be at least approaching records both Friday and 
Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into 
Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains 
that could push a cold front through our area as it moves east, but 
these details are still in flux so uncertainty is high for how much 
precipitation we may see. It does look a bit cooler at the end of 
the period as highs should be back closer to normal for Sunday and 
Monday.  

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge      
04-14   87(2010)       86(1887)       85(1938)       88(2017)       
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)
04-19   91(2002)       90(1941)       90(1941)       90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly winds around 10kts will 
return late morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts near 20kts possible
at TYS. Mid to high level CIGS through the first 2/3rds of the TAF
cycle. Skies will clear with light winds returning in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  59  86  60 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  57  86  58 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  55  84  58 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


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