316 
FXUS64 KMRX 181133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Rain chance returns Wednesday night and continues through the 
weekend, generally light rain amounts expected.

- Cold temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

In the upper levels, the ridge over the Southeast breaks down today 
becoming nearly zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure over the 
Southeast is weak. Rain chances are very low this afternoon. Rain 
chances start to increase Wednesday evening through Thursday morning 
as a vort max moves through the region. A few rumbles of thunder 
will be possible but not likely with dew points remaining below 60 
degrees. By Thursday morning, a surface low will move into KS/MO 
with a warm front well to our north over IL/IN/OH and a cold front 
over OK/TX. Rain chances will be low Thursday afternoon/evening. The 
best chance of rain will be Thursday night into Friday morning as 
the cold front moves through. The parent low will be over the Great 
Lakes. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles cannot be ruled 
out.

Some stronger winds will be likely in the mountains and foothills 
through noon Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon through Friday 
morning as 850 mb winds increase but it looks like gusts will likely 
remain below advisory criteria at most locations. The higher 
mountain peaks of GSMNP may get some gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range 
through Wednesday morning but those higher gusts are not expected to 
be widespread enough for a Wind Advisory. 

Warm temperatures will continue with highs mainly in the 60s. 
Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into the 70s in 
the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday, another system is likely to bring rain. This one may 
have better upper level support. Drying out Sunday as a trough moves 
through. There is a chance for some light snow accumulations in the 
higher elevations "horseshoe" on the backside of the system on 
Sunday but accumulation look very low at this time. Temperatures 
will be much colder Sunday, Monday, Tuesday with highs mainly in the 
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Breezy conditions have already begun at TYS with increasing winds
at CHA and then TRI by noon or so. MVFR ceilings are still
expected to move in south to north through the day but at a slower
rate than previously forecast. CHA will likely remain VFR until
late morning with TYS and TRI remaining VFR until at least early
afternoon. Off and on showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are
also anticipated this evening and overnight. The greatest chance
for impact are at TYS, but MVFR is expected to be in place
regardless. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  59  77  60 /  10  30  20  80 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  59  74  60 /  20  50  40  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  57  72  58 /  20  60  40  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  53  71  55 /  20  60  50  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


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