MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 141939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141939 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas into central Oklahoma
and southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 141939Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms expected to develop along a dryline
this afternoon will bring the potential for all severe hazards. A
Tornado Watch will be needed by 21z.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a dryline extending
from eastern Kansas southwestward into northwest Oklahoma and the
southeastern Texas Panhandle. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft
(40-50+ kts at 4-5 km AGL per regional VWPs) and modest ascent
preceding an approaching upper-level trough will overspread the warm
sector through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates (per the
12Z OUN/FWD/MAF soundings) atop surface temperatures in the low-80s
and dewpoints in the mid/upper-60s F are supporting strong
instability (MLCAPE 2500-3000+ J/kg) ahead of the dryline, with
convective initiation expected within the next 1-2 hours as
convective temperatures are reached.

35-45 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest mesoanalysis) will
support initial supercells, with very large to giant hail (up to 3-4
inches in diameter) likely given the aforementioned steep mid-level
lapse rates, ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone, and
elongated hodographs. A few tornadoes (some potentially strong) are
also possible, especially with any supercells that can remain
largely discrete into the evening hours when a strengthening
nocturnal low-level jet will yield enlarged, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs. A Tornado Watch will be needed by 21z to cover
this threat.

Expectation is then for upscale growth to gradually occur with time
this evening, with a transition toward severe wind gusts as the
primary threat.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34149793 33619861 33429920 33429958 33719984 34359992
            34969976 35809926 36689849 37499774 38069716 38309660
            38309618 38179544 37919519 37439517 36679571 35419683
            34829735 34149793 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)