AWUS01 KWNH 121313
FFGMPD
VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1022
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Eastern KY...Eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121310Z - 121800Z

Summary...Long lived back building MCS continues to produce
widespread heavy rainfall across eastern portions of the Ohio
Valley this morning. Additional flash flooding is likely given
highly saturated grounds and the expectation of 2-4 inches of
rainfall through the midday hours.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are continuing to depict a
back-building MCS currently centered over eastern Indiana this
morning that has been nearly stationary for the past several
hours. Although recent GOES-E infrared satellite imagery is
indicating a slight decrease in the magnitude of the overall
convection, it has been a slow change overall and the
thermodynamic parameters remain quite favorable for additional
back-building convection to develop through the remainder of the
morning and into the midday hours. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
indicates PWs close to 2 inches near the western boundary of the
complex, along with most unstable CAPE values in the 2500-3000
J/kg range just downstream.

The outflow boundary that has developed on the western edge of the
complex is serving as an excellent lifting mechanism for new
convection with 20-30 mph 850mb flow intersecting the boundary,
and this is likely to remain the case over the next few hours. The
latest CAM guidance suite is quite varied in the possible QPF
solutions, but the RRFS appears to have the most realistic
depiction with some additional 2-4 inch totals through 18Z. An
aggravating factor will be the severely compromised flash flood
guidance values across a large portion of eastern Indiana into
northern Kentucky, which has been hammered by multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall in just the past 12 hours, in some cases exceeding
5 inches. Multiple instances of flash flooding are likely.

Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41128607 41128486 40538397 39528397 38718386 
            37818346 36938298 35928308 35588397 35738530 
            36468602 37438641 38338673 39538699 40378682 
$$


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