510 
FXUS64 KMRX 151716
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record 
highs are possible. 

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will 
generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening 
drought and fire weather conditions. 

- A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday
  morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a 
persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today. 
Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under 
mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%, 
with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a 
Fire Danger Statement, and will reevlaute the need for that tomorrow 
morning after coordination with forestry. 

The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave 
trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night. 
Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across 
Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter 
our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT. 
Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered 
coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quater inch 
in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability 
(~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms, 
with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau 
counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave 
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on 
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday 
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the 
Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in 
decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the 
details that will be important in determining how much precipitation 
we will see.  Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of 
seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of 
seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks 
unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited 
moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler 
temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below 
normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend 
warmer again Tuesday.  


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge      
04-15   87(2006)       87(1936)       85(1945)       86(2024)       
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)
04-19   91(2002)       90(1941)       90(1941)       90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Winds will be generally 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at TYS
through the afternoon, dropping off around sunset. LLWS will be
mentioned in the TAFs as surface winds decouple from winds aloft,
which will be around 25 kt. With daytime mixing, gusty winds will
develop again late in this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  87  62  90 /   0  20  20  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  85  61  86 /   0  20  40  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  85  60  87 /   0  30  40  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  83  59  82 /   0  10  40  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)