329 
FXUS64 KMRX 160636
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

-  Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. 
   Record highs are possible. 

-  Chance of showers late today into tonight but precipitation 
   amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from 
   the worsening drought and fire weather conditions. 

-  A cold front will bring a chance of showers/storms Saturday 
   and Saturday night, followed by cooler temperatures early next 
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over the 
southeastern CONUS will sponsor hot and dry conditions through much 
of the day today. High temperatures will once again be in the 80s 
and will not be far off of record highs. Afternoon RH values will be 
low but not quite as low as recent days, dropping into the 30s 
across much of the area. However, winds will be a bit stronger with 
SW winds generally in the 10-15 mph range with higher gusts. It 
still looks borderline for any fire danger statement, but if one is 
deemed to be needed it will be issued during the morning hours when 
coordination with the forestry folks can occur. 

The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave 
trough approaching from the west late today that will move across 
our area during the night. We will see showers approaching from the 
west later today and these may move into at least western areas 
later in the afternoon with showers moving across the remainder of 
the area overnight.  Weak forcing and limited moisture will 
generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts, 
providing little relief from the ongoing drought conditions and 
wildfires. Right now, QPF values generally range from just a few 
hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Models show some 
limited instability (HREF mean MUCAPE values are generally around or 
less than 500 J/kg) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the 
highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear 
looks too weak to suggest a severe threat.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave 
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on 
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances will arrive by Saturday 
night as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that 
will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent 
agreement on this scenario, although differ a bit more in the 
details that will be important in determining how much precipitation 
we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 20% (south) to 
50% (north/west) chance of seeing over a half inch of rain in a 24 
hour period. A significant severe threat looks unlikely at this time 
given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability 
ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on 
Sunday behind the front, with highs near or even a bit below normal 
both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer 
again Tuesday and Wednesday.   


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge      
04-16   89(2002)       87(1896)       87(2002)       88(2002)       
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955)       
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

KMRX VAD Wind Profile shows winds near 2kft approaching 30kts once
again this morning. Have included a period of LLWS for TYS and
TRI. KHTX data is slightly less so LLWS has been left out of KCHA
at this time. Another round of breezy southwest winds this 
afternoon, though, this afternoon will favor gusts at all three
sites. Late tomorrow afternoon & evening some scattered showers 
will move across the area, especially the north. Have included 
some VCSH at TYS/TRI, with a prob30 including some TSRA at TRI. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  61  89  61 /  20  20  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  60  85  59 /  30  50  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  58  85  58 /  40  60  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  58  81  54 /  10  60  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


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