223 
FXUS64 KMRX 140641
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Periods of showers and storms continue this afternoon and this 
  evening. The threat of severe weather is low, but there is 
  potential for localized flooding and isolated damaging wind 
  gusts mainly in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. 

- A warming trend is expected today through the weekend. Saturday
  through Monday look to be the most hot and humid days. Heat 
  Advisory criteria (heat index 105 degrees and above) is expected
  to be reached in most of the Tennessee Valley Saturday through 
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the south and Midwest today and 
tonight. A trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The 
northwest flow pattern continues with storms forming upstream in the 
Midwest then riding the ridge down through Kentucky and into 
Southwest Virgina and Northeast Tennessee. This afternoon and early 
evening showers and storms will be isolated to scattered in 
coverage. CAMs did not do well Thursday with placement and coverage 
of storms. CAMs are split for this afternoon whether coverage will 
be isolated or scattered. Some guidance suggests a stronger ridge 
this afternoon weakening later in the evening. Therefore, I cannot 
rule out another storm cluster moving through Southwest Virginia and 
Northeast Tennessee late in the evening like the past two nights. If 
that happens, I think the intensity and coverage will be like the 
past two nights and not a full blown MCS. SPC has Southwest Virginia 
and Northeast Tennessee in a marginal risk for severe today and 
tonight which seems appropriate. Flash flooding will continue to be 
a concern in places that have received a lot of rain recently. At 
the moment confidence is not high enough for a flood watch but one 
may be issued later for Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee 
if confidence in heavy rainfall increases.

Heat indices will be high again today especially in the Southern 
Tennessee Valley where locations like Chattanooga may briefly reach 
heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees heat index. There is better 
confidence in needing a heat advisory for most of the Tennessee 
Valley on Saturday and Sunday. 

The ridge over the south will continue through this weekend bringing 
isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly in the afternoon and 
early evening hours. We may still get some late night northwest flow 
storms in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. SPC has that 
area outlined in a marginal risk for that possibility. Isolated 
flooding issues will still be a concern this weekend in places that 
have received a lot of rain.

By early next week, the ridge weakens and the trough dips into the 
Tennessee Valley. By mid week, a ridge will move back over the 
Tennessee Valley. NBM has the best chances of rain on Monday mainly 
in the northeast half of the region. Otherwise, POPs look typical 
for this time of year with mostly diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Activity has wound down for the night. Expect calm conditions
through the early morning with fog a possibility at TRI again. 
Continued with what was inherited. Light SW winds develop later
today with scattered showers and storms possible at all terminals
for the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  77  97  77 /  20  10  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  75  94  76 /  20  10  20   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  75  94  75 /  20  10  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  71  90  71 /  30  10  60  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)