394 
FXUS64 KMRX 161835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

-  Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. 
   Record highs are possible. 

-  Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this
   afternoon into this evening. Another round of isolated to
   widely scattered showers and storms possible early Friday
   morning. Isolated storms could produce strong and gusty winds
   and small hail.

-  A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a 
   thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night. 

-  Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again 
   next week. Low afternoon relative humidity early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

SPC meso analysis shows a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon 
producing breezy conditions. Instability is increasing especially 
over the Plateau with MLCAPEs of 500-100. DCAPEs of 800-900 with dry 
mid-level and sub-cloud layers will likely produce strong and gusty 
winds with the storms. There is a marginal risk of severe storms.

A weak wave over west TN/AR/MO will approach the region by early 
Friday morning. Currently strong convection has developed with this 
feature. Some of the CAM models show isolate to widely scattered 
storms moving into the area late tonight. Due to the colder air 
aloft with the upper trough, mid-level lapse rates steepen. There is 
a low end confidence of isolated storms producing hail up to one-
half inch. Greatest potential north of interstate 40.

After this wave moves east early Friday, a return to dry and 
unseasonably warm conditions tomorrow with low afternoon relative 
humidity. 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge 
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955) 
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)

For Saturday (especially late) into Saturday night, a strong upper 
trough will dig into the Great Lakes into the Tennessee valley. The 
jet dynamics with this system will enhance the fronto-genetic 
forcing along this incoming cold front producing widespread showers 
and possible a thunderstorm. Instability ahead of this system is 
quite limited over the Tennessee valley. Ensemble analysis shows QPF 
of 0.25 to 0.40 inch with this system. Much needed rainfall but 
still will not too much for our ongoing drought conditions.

For much of next week, dry conditions return with a dry surface 
ridge producing low afternoon humidities into the 20s and 30s. 
Cooler temperatures for early week but quickly moderate to above 
normal temperatures by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Main concerns through the forecast is the expected scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing late today through the night
especially across TRI and TYS. First round of scattered convection
will develop near the Plateau counties and move east into east
Tennessee. This is in response to low-level convergence into that
region and approaching upper trough. Instability is limited with
CAPES of 500-1000 but due to dry air aloft and below cloud base,
strong and gusty winds are anticipated.

As the upper trough approaches overnight, another round of
isolated showers and storms are possible mainly for TRI and TYS. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  89  63  88 /  20   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  85  60  86 /  50   0   0  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  85  59  86 /  50   0   0  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  81  55  84 /  50   0   0  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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