847 
FXUS64 KMRX 170700
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. 
  Record highs are possible. 

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a 
  thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night. 

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Not too many changes this morning. Hot weather again today and 
Saturday, with the expected cold front likely to sweep through early 
Sunday morning. Ahead of the front will be another batch of rain 
showers, with possibly a thunderstorm or two, which will bring 
another round of much needed rainfall to the region, though 
certainly not a drought buster. A few showers may start encroaching 
on the area Saturday afternoon, but the more likely bulk of the rain 
will fall overnight into early Sunday morning. CAPE profiles from 
longer range CAM models don't look overly promising for storm 
development at this time. Depending on how much rainfall any one 
location got from the first round of rain a few hours ago, the 
totals for the week will be close to average or still below average 
for a week of April. Unfortunately, more substantive relief from the 
drought will remain on hold.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge 
04-17   91(1955)       90(1896)       85(2002)       88(1955) 
04-18   90(2002)       90(1896)       87(2002)       89(2002)

Following the front, another disgustingly dry airmass will deposit 
down onto the region, and with the H85 southeastern ridge being 
fairly stagnant, we can expect daily low relative humidity minimums 
for much of the following work week. Rain chances don't seem likely 
to start creeping in until the end of the work week, with no 
interesting disturbances in either model suite. Temperatures behind 
the front will take a healthy nose dive, with potential for isolated 
frost across northern locations Monday and Tuesday mornings. This is 
provided there's enough surface moisture to allow for frost 
formation. Temperatures will steadily rebound thanks again to 
influence by the H85 ridge, and by late week next week we'll be back 
in the 80s across much of the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Calm conditions expected, with possible light showers to move 
over CHA in the next 2 hours or so. TYS up to TRI saw the most
measurable rainfall yesterday evening, so fog development could be
possible. Low confidence on occurrence, but a TEMPO was added to 
account for the chance. Clearing conditions expected later today 
with ridging and SFC high pressure building back in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  64  88  49 /   0   0  20  80 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  61  86  48 /   0   0  20  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  60  86  47 /   0   0  30  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  56  84  46 /   0   0  30  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KS


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