661 
FXUS64 KMRX 150655
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon into this 
  evening, with chances generally higher north than south. The 
  threat of severe weather is low overall, but there is potential 
  for localized flooding and isolated damaging wind gusts 
  especially across our northern and eastern counties. 

- Very hot for the weekend and likely into Monday, especially south 
  and central valley areas. Then it will remain on the hot side 
  through the week but likely a bit less oppressive.

- Next week, best chance for showers and storms will be Monday
  with drier weather expected midweek. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the south and Midwest today. A 
trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The northwest flow 
pattern continues with storms forming upstream in the Midwest then 
riding the ridge down through Kentucky and into Southwest Virgina 
and Northeast Tennessee. This afternoon and early evening showers 
and storms will be isolated in the south and more scattered to the 
north. A minor wave will move through the Ohio Valley this evening 
bringing storms a little farther north into West Virginia. The best 
chance for storms this afternoon and evening remains in Southwest 
Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. SPC brings the marginal risk to 
around the Knoxville area for today and the slight risk clips our 
northeastern-most counties in Southwest Virginia and Northeast 
Tennessee. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern especially 
in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee where soils are 
saturated. At the moment confidence is not high enough for a flood 
watch with some guidance bringing the bulk of the storms to our 
north and east.

Heat indices will be high today especially in the Southern Tennessee 
Valley and Plateau. A Heat Advisory has been issued for those 
counties for this afternoon where heat indices are expected to reach 
105 degrees or higher. By Sunday and Monday, the Heat Advisory will 
likely need to be expanded northward into the Knoxville area.

On Sunday, showers and storms will be more isolated as the ridge 
flattens and we break free from the northwest flow pattern. Even 
with a decrease in storm activity, there is still a possibility 
strong winds or isolated flooding in the storms that do form.

By Monday, the ridge weakens and the trough dips into the Tennessee 
Valley. A decaying cold front will plunge southward on Monday. As a 
result, the best chances of rain will be Monday with the best 
coverage in the northeast half of the region. By mid week, a ridge 
will move back over the Tennessee Valley. Tuesday and Wednesday will 
be mostly dry and late in the week POPs look typical for this time 
of year with mostly diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Relatively calm can be expected through the early morning hours.
Clearing skies at TRI may bring the chance of fog within the next
couple of hours. TEMPO added to reflect the chance. Afternoon and
evening PROB30 for all terminals later today for increased chances
of showers and storms. Winds relatively light out of the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             97  76  98  76 /  10  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  94  75  95  75 /  20  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       94  74  95  74 /  30  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  71  90  71 /  50  10  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for Bledsoe-
     Bradley-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Sequatchie-West 
     Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS


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