334 
FXUS64 KMRX 171827
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue into Saturday.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and some 
  thunderstorms late Saturday and especially Saturday night. 

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again 
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Conditions are once again warm and dry across the region this 
afternoon. Blended in some NBM10 to the dewpoints for this afternoon 
and evening to lower RH values as has been done in recent days. Dry 
conditions continue overnight and into the midday or early afternoon 
hours tomorrow before rain chances increase tomorrow night due to an 
an approaching cold front from the west.

Frontal passage looks to fall between 8pm and maybe 11pm tomorrow 
evening. Most precipitation will fall in close proximity to the 
front but some guidance indicates some possibility of convection 
developing out ahead of the front. Model soundings aren't too 
impressive with respect to severe chances. However, there is 
supporting evidence of a very low end damaging wind threat. Model 
soundings show several hundred Joules of downdraft CAPE in the late 
afternoon and early evening hours just ahead of the front. Using 
HREF ensemble max wind gusts as a proxy for convective wind gust 
potential, it shows some areas exceeding 40-45 mph tomorrow evening 
as well, mainly in the south where it will be warmer and more deeply 
mixed. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a few reports of some 
downed trees. I also wouldn't be surprised if there are no strong 
storms whatsoever and it's just a breezy, convective frontal passage 
given the marginal environment.

Otherwise, behind the front temperatures cool significantly and 
another very dry air mass will move in. Freezing levels do fall 
quickly behind the front, but it appears precip will wrap up before 
they're low enough to mention any sort of chance of snow showers in 
the higher terrain. We'll be much cooler Sunday through Monday 
night. Could see some potential frost in the north on Sunday and 
Monday nights if it's not too dry. After the cooldown, temperatures 
steadily rebound through next week with dry conditions expected to 
continue as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR flight categories are expected through the end of the 18z TAF
period. Low level winds will begin to increase towards the tail
end of the period, such that some gusts of 15-20kt could occur at
KTYS, but would expect that after 16z so no plan to include that
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  87  49  68 /   0  20  90  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  85  47  64 /   0  30  90  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  85  46  65 /   0  40 100  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  84  45  61 /   0  30  90  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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