Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of eastern
U.S. on Saturday...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of
Rockies/Plains into the Southwest through the weekend...

...Dangerous heat continues across south-central U.S. into the Southwest
through the weekend...


A amplified pattern with a deepening trough over eastern U.S. and
persistent ridging over the southern Plains/Southwest will bring unsettled
conditions across the Rockies/Plains into eastern U.S. into early next
week. At the surface, the low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will
continue to strengthen, while frontal boundaries begin to merge. The slow
moving boundary will drape across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, into the
Southeast and southern Plains by Saturday. Increasing cyclonic flow,
upper-level forcing, and sufficient moisture will maintain multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary, with locally heavy
rainfall possible across portions of the Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas into the Northeast. By Sunday, the system will
continue to move eastward, with cyclogenesis north of the Great Lakes,
supporting additional showers for portions of the Northeast. Additionally,
Storm Prediction Center highlights a severe thunderstorm threat capable of
producing severe hail and wind across portions of southern Plains and Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic for Saturday, while the threat is confined
to the Northeast by Sunday.

Further west, the stationary frontal boundary will continue to stretch
across the Rockies/Plains into the Four Corners. The combination of the
shortwave disturbances, slow moving frontal boundary, and moisture influx
can lead to showers and thunderstorms. These systems may be capable of
producing excessive rainfall/flash flooding, lightning, severe hail and
damaging winds across portions of the Rockies/Plains into the Southwest
through the weekend.

The southern tier will remain dominated by the upper-level ridging
centered over the Southwest. This will maintain above normal temperatures
into next week. The dangerous heat will build across south-central U.S.
and Southwest with daytime highs of 100-110 degrees across the Southern
Plains into the Southwest, with numerous record breaking highs. With
little to no overnight relief, as minimum temperatures will remain warm,
and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees. Therefore,
expect widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through the weekend. Refer to
Key Messages issued by WPC for additional information on this event.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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