977 
FXUS64 KMRX 220609
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
209 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
 
- This afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered showers and storms
  are expected in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the
  East Tennessee Mountains.
 
- Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

In the upper levels, a trough is over the Ohio Valley, extending 
down to Florida. At the surface, a stationary boundary is over North 
Georgia. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated for the rest of 
the night. In the early morning hours, clearing skies will lead to 
fog development near bodies of water and low-lying areas. Patchy 
dense fog will be possible in the early morning hours.

A cold front will approach the region this afternoon and evening, 
bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms in Northeast 
Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. 
Elsewhere, will be mostly dry but some isolated activity will be 
possible. Some of the CAMs have come in wetter for today this cycle 
than last cycle, I think the timing of the cold front is lining up 
better with max heating. A few strong storms, possibly even severe 
can't be ruled out. The front will move through this evening 
bringing cooler temps and lower dew points tonight and tomorrow. 
Sunday dew points will be in the 60s and highs will be in the 80s 
(Chattanooga area may hit 90). 

Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The 
upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the 
East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies.

The NBM has low rain chances Tuesday increasing to 30-40% chances by 
Wednesday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by 
midweek with at least one shortwave rotating through the pattern 
Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Isolated shower near KTRI is drifting away. Due to the storm's
presence, highly uncertain about fog development over the next 6
hours, but maintaining the TAF for persistence. IFR to LIFR
conditions possible should fog form. Post 13z, return to VFR area
wide, with low chance for scattered TS in primarily northeastern 
areas this evening, PROB30 at KTRI accounts for most likely 
window. Otherwise light winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  68  91  65 /   0  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  66  86  62 /  10  20   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  64  87  61 /  10  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  63  81  57 /  20  30   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


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