476 
FXUS64 KMRX 181846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Showers and storms expected this evening primary threat will be
  damaging winds and small hail, especially along and north of 
  Interstate 40.
 
- Drier and much cooler conditions are expected Sunday into Monday 
  with low RH's in the 20s and lower 30s returning. 

- Dry conditions will continue through the week, along with a
  gradual warming trend. Low RH's continue to be of concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A cold front is approaching the area today with increasing 
southerly flow out ahead. Showers and storms, some discrete, are 
ongoing ahead of this front. However... the focus for strong to 
marginally severe storms continues to be in the northern half of 
the region where CAPE up to 1,000 J/kg is possible. While 
stronger flow is expected in the mid levels, the 850mb winds will
remain generally light to moderate with limited low-level shear. 
CAPE hail growth zone is could grow to 400 J/kg. So there remains
a low end threat for damaging winds and hail during the evening 
hours. The cold front will move through the area after midnight, 
leading to decreasing rain coverage.

Tomorrow the cold front will moved well to the east with high 
pressure expanding from the southwest. This will lead to cooler 
and drier conditions with high temperatures remaining in the 60s 
for most. Low relative humidities in the 20s will return, along 
with northwesterly winds. Tomorrow night will be cooler following
the front with some places dropping into the 30s. Next week, high
pressure will be centered overhead, leading to a lighter winds, 
but dry conditions will continue. Cold low temperatures can be 
expected again Monday night, potentially cold enough for frost in
some areas. By Tuesday, high pressure will shift off to the east,
turning winds more to southerly. This will begin another warming 
trend with highs rising back above normal. Ridging will lead to 
further strengthening pressure through the end of the week with 
most places rising back into the 80s. Unfortunately low relative 
humidities will continue next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

ISOLD SHRA will move into the TN valley in the next 2-4 hours, with 
VCSH possible at all terminals for a few hours thereafter. 
Increasing coverage in SHRA and embedded TSRA expected later 
tonight. FROPA should occur around or shortly after 08z tonight, 
with low-end VFR or possibly some MVFR CIGS lingering until daybreak 
or thereabouts. Post-frontal winds should be fairly gusty tomorrow 
so have gusts of 20-22kt at all sites to account for that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             48  68  44  75 /  90   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  64  43  68 / 100   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       46  65  41  69 / 100   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              44  61  38  62 / 100  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)