Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 00Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible
across parts of the Great Lakes, Mid-South, and West through tonight...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains through Monday...

Scorching August temperatures are set to continue throughout much of the
South-Central U.S. and Southwest this weekend into early next week and
beyond as an anomalous upper ridge sets up over the region and prompts
temperatures to remain well above average compared to typical heat this
time of year. Temperatures are forecast to be dangerously hot and rise
into the triple digits once again on Sunday and Monday throughout much of
Texas, Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and into the Desert Southwest. Upper
90s are forecast to extend into the Gulf Coast regions and parts of the
central High Plains. When combined with warm overnight low temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s, the HeatRisk is considered Extreme for much of the
aforementioned regions. These temperatures are also expected to break
dozens of daily high temperature and warm overnight temperature records,
further highlighting how this heat wave is not just typical August heat.
Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued. Residents and
visitors are reminded to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activity during
the hottest hours of the afternoon.

Thunderstorms and unsettled weather is forecast to continue through
tonight along a frontal boundary that stretches from the Lower Great Lakes
to the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Additionally,
scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across
much of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and Southwest. Isolated instances
of flash flooding are possible, as well as damaging wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and hail. By Sunday and Monday, unsettled weather remains
across the Lower Great Lakes associated with a deepening low pressure
system across southeast Canada. Meanwhile, continued monsoonal
thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest, Intermountain
West, and Rockies on an isolated-to-scattered basis. Other clusters of
thunderstorms are possible within northwesterly flow across the Great
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Primary hazards with these
storms will be locally heavy rain, frequent lighting, and damaging wind
gusts. The greatest threat for damaging wind gusts on Sunday is forecast
to be located in parts of the central Great Basin and central/eastern
Montana, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
3/5) of severe weather.

Elsewhere, high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and drier
conditions for much of the Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley
through early next week.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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